Forex Market: EUR/HUF daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/HUF within the range of 314.250-317.290. The pair closed at 314.900, losing 0.70% on a daily basis.

At 6:13 GMT today EUR/HUF was up 0.07% for the day to trade at 315.148. The pair touched a daily high at 315.336 during early Asian trade.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

The annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) in France probably remained unchanged at 0.5% in August, according to the median forecast by experts. In July prices of manufactured goods and fresh food decreased because of seasonal effects, while costs of accommodation, package holidays, transport and communication surged. In July prices of tobacco climbed at an annualized rate of 5.0%, energy costs rose 0.7%, housing rentals and services for dwellings – 1.4%, medical services – 0.3%, while costs of transport and communication were 1.5% up. Food prices fell 1.4%, prices of clothing and footwear dropped 1.8%, prices of medical products plunged 3.0%, while prices of petroleum products marked a 1.5% decrease.

Key categories, included in Frances Consumer Price Index, are manufactured products excluding clothing and pharmaceuticals (accounting for 20.6% of the total weight) and food (16.4%). Other categories, which comprise the index, are healthcare (10.1%), energy (8.7%), rentals and real estate services (7.4%), transport and communication services (5%), clothing and footwear (4.7%) and pharmaceuticals (4.6%).

The index measures the change in price levels of the above mentioned basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also provides clues over purchasing tendencies. In case the CPI accelerated, this would have a bullish effect on the euro. The National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies will release the official report at 6:45 GMT.

France’s annualized CPI, evaluated in accordance with Eurostat’s harmonized methodology, probably fell to 0.5% during August from 0.6% in the prior month. In monthly terms, the harmonized CPI probably climbed 0.4% last month, following a 0.4% drop in July.

At 8:00 GMT the European Central Bank will release its Monthly Report, including detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions and price stability risks in the Euro region from bank’s perspective. It is usually published one week after ECB’s interest rate decision.

Hungary

Annualized consumer inflation in Hungary probably accelerated to 0.3% in August from 0.1% in July, which followed three consecutive months of negative CPI readings. In monthly terms, the index of consumer prices climbed 0.2% in July, or the largest pace of increase since March. The index measures the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also provides clues over purchasing trends. In case the CPI accelerated more than anticipated, this would have a positive effect on the forint. Hungarys Central Statistical Office is to release the official CPI report at 7:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 315.480. In case EUR/HUF manages to breach the first resistance level at 316.710, it will probably continue up to test 318.520. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 319.750.

If EUR/HUF manages to breach the first key support at 313.670, it will probably continue to slide and test 312.440. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 310.630.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 311.535, M2 – 313.055, M3 – 314.575, M4 – 316.095, M5 – 317.615, M6 – 319.135.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 313.713. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 315.947, R2 – 318.203, R3 – 320.437. The three key support levels are: S1 – 311.457, S2 – 309.223, S3 – 306.967.