Gold trading outlook: futures edge up a third consecutive day as markets await the US private sector employment numbers

On Wednesday gold for delivery in August traded within the range of $1,205.40-$1,219.80. Futures closed at $1,215.75, edging up 0.08% compared to Tuesday’s close. It has been the 42nd gain in the past 86 trading days and also a second consecutive one. The daily high has been the highest price level since May 27th, when the commodity went up as high as $1,223.20. Gold has gained 0.27% so far during the current month, following a 5.77% slump in May, or the steepest since November 2015.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for delivery in August were edging up 0.17% on Thursday to trade at $1,217.85 per troy ounce. The precious metal went up as high as $1,219.75 during late Asian trade, while the current daily low was at $1,213.00 per troy ounce, recorded during the early phase of the Asian trading session.

The US Dollar Index, a gauge reflecting the relative strength of the greenback against a basket of 6 other major currencies, was edging down 0.25% on the day at a level of 95.18, after reaching 95.15 earlier, or its lowest level since May 27th. The index has fallen 0.72% so far in June, after advancing 3.04% in May. The latter has been the strongest monthly performance since November 2015, when the dollar gauge rose 3.29%. Weaker dollar usually favors demand for gold and other dollar-denominated commodities, as they tend to become cheaper to holders of other currencies.

Today gold trading may be strongly influenced by the monthly report on private sector employment growth in the United States, released by Automated Data Processing Inc. (ADP). Employers in the non-farm private sector probably added 175 000 new jobs during May, according to the median estimate by experts, following 156 000 new positions added in March. The latter has been the lowest job growth since April 2013, when a revised down number of 131 000 jobs was reported. In case new jobs growth outpaced expectations, this would have a moderate-to-strong bullish effect on the US dollar. The official figure is scheduled to be released at 12:15 GMT.

Additionally, the weekly report by the US Department of Labor may show that the number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on May 27th, rose to 270 000, according to market consensus. A week ago 268 000 claims were reported. The latter has been the lowest figure since the business week ended on April 28th, when an unrevised level of 257 000 was reported.

Markets will also pay attention to the remarks by several Federal Open Market Committee members. At 12:35 GMT FOMC member, Jerome Powell, is expected to take a statement, followed by the Fed President for New York, William Dudley, at 15:30 GMT and the Fed President for Dallas, Robert Kaplan, at 17:00 GMT. Any hints regarding the US macroeconomic outlook, or the Banks future monetary policy stance have the potential to heighten US dollar volatility.

Meanwhile, silver futures for delivery in July were up 0.25% on the day to trade at $16.015 per troy ounce, after going up as high as $16.040 a troy ounce during the late phase of the Asian trading session.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the traditional calculation method, the daily pivot levels for gold are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – $1,213.65
R1 – $1,221.90
R2 – $1,228.05
R3 – $1,236.30

S1 – $1,207.50
S2 – $1,199.25
S3 – $1,193.10

By using the traditional method of calculation again, the weekly pivot levels for gold are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – $1,223.93
R1 – $1,241.47
R2 – $1,269.13
R3 – $1,286.67

S1 – $1,196.27
S2 – $1,178.73
S3 – $1,151.07