Forex Market: USD/CAD daily trading outlook

Friday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.2953-1.3144. The pair closed at 1.2979, plummeting 1.26% on a daily basis. It has been the 32nd drop in the past 69 trading days and also the sharpest one since March 16th, when the pair went down 1.92%. The daily low has been the lowest level since March 31st, when a low of 1.2853 was registered. In weekly terms, USD/CAD lost 0.25% of its value during the past week. It has been the 11th drop in the past 14 weeks and also a second consecutive one. USD/CAD has dipped 0.14% so far during the current month, following two straight months of decline. In March it plunged 3.94%.

At 7:23 GMT today USD/CAD was edging up 0.24% on the day to trade at 1.3011. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3014 during early Asian trade, making an exact test of the daily R2 level, and a daily low at 1.2971 during the late phase of the Asian trading session.

Canadas dollar advanced to one-week highs against its US counterpart, as crude oil futures also tested highs unseen in a week on April 8th. Friday marked the 41st gain in oil prices out of the past 80 trading days. Oil futures for May delivery went up as high as $39.84 per barrel on April 8th, or the highest price level since March 30th, and closed at $39.64, soaring 6.39% on the day. As of 7:32 GMT today the commodity was losing 2.09% to trade at $39.36, after going down as low as $39.26 per barrel earlier.

No relevant macroeconomic reports and other events, which may influence USD/CAD trading, are scheduled on Monday.

Correlation with other Majors

Taking into account the week ended on April 8th and the daily closing levels of the major currency pairs, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

USD/CAD to USD/CHF (0.4558, or moderate)
USD/CAD to USD/JPY (0.3235, or moderate)
USD/CAD to GBP/USD (-0.1039, or weak)
USD/CAD to NZD/USD (-0.3180, or moderate)
USD/CAD to AUD/USD (-0.3216, or moderate)
USD/CAD to EUR/USD (-0.8491, or very strong)

1. During the examined period USD/CAD moved almost equally in the opposite direction compared to EUR/USD.

2. USD/CAD moved to a moderate extent in one and the same direction with USD/JPY and USD/CHF during the past week, while moving to a moderate extent in the opposite direction compared to NZD/USD and AUD/USD.

3. The correlation between USD/CAD and GBP/USD was insignificant.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.2997
R2 – 1.3014
R3 (range resistance) – 1.3032
R4 (range breakout) – 1.3084

S1 – 1.2961
S2 – 1.2944
S3 (range support) – 1.2926
S4 (range breakout) – 1.2874

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.3050
R1 – 1.3148
R2 – 1.3316
R3 – 1.3414

S1 – 1.2882
S2 – 1.2784
S3 – 1.2616