Key Moments
- ING strategist Francesco Pesole highlights a series of Bank of England speeches scheduled for today.
- Governor Andrew Bailey, along with MPC members Catherine Mann and Megan Greene, are all set to speak.
- ING expects no further rate hikes this year and sees EUR/GBP moving toward 0.88.
BoE Communication in Focus
ING strategist Francesco Pesole points to a busy day of communication from the Bank of England. Governor Andrew Bailey will speak in New York later today. In addition, MPC members Catherine Mann and Megan Greene are also scheduled to deliver remarks.
Mann and Greene are often seen as the most hawkish voices on the committee. However, Greene has recently taken a more balanced tone. She has highlighted both higher inflation pressures and weaker demand following the recent oil shock.
Policy Stance and Implications for EUR/GBP
ING expects Governor Bailey to keep a cautious tone. At the same time, the message is likely to remain non-committal on future policy moves. As Pesole notes, this would still signal that a pause is the most likely outcome for now.
In terms of outlook, ING maintains its view that the Bank of England will not deliver further rate hikes this year. Markets are currently pricing in around 45 basis points of tightening by year-end. However, ING sees that as excessive. This divergence supports its expectation of a move toward 0.88 in EUR/GBP.
Summary of ING’s EUR/GBP View
| Aspect | ING View |
|---|---|
| BoE policy trajectory | No additional rate hikes expected this year |
| Market pricing | 45bp of tightening priced by year-end |
| EUR/GBP target level | 0.88 |
| Key BoE speakers | Andrew Bailey, Catherine Mann, Megan Greene |
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