Gulf Disruptions Reshape TTF Gas as LNG Glut Ends

Key Moments

Rabobank: LNG Surplus Era Has Ended

Rabobank strategists Florence Schmit and Joe DeLaura contend that the combination of the Ras Laffan strike and an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz has brought the period of excess LNG supply to an abrupt end, compelling a significant recalibration of TTF gas pricing.

They now anticipate that European benchmark TTF gas will be quoted at €61/MWh in the second quarter of 2026, with the average for full-year 2026 around €50/MWh and 2027 near €42/MWh. The revised view is driven by tighter LNG availability as European buyers increasingly compete with Asian importers for constrained cargoes.

Escalation in the Gulf and Forecast Revisions

Rabobank highlights that the recent deterioration in geopolitical conditions in the Gulf has led to a material shift in the near-term LNG balance and their pricing trajectory for TTF.

“This latest escalation in the Gulf has forced a significant reassessment of the near-term LNG balance and our forecast trajectory. When we last revised our outlook, we had already priced in a closure of the Strait of Hormuz through early April, as Iran had effectively halted maritime traffic after multiple strikes on merchant vessels and coastal infrastructure, reducing tanker movements to near zero and disrupting roughly one-fifth of global LNG flows.”

“The situation has since deteriorated materially and as a result, we must raise our forecast again to reflect this large, multi-year capacity loss. In addition, we now expect the Strait of Hormuz to remain effectively closed until late-April, with LNG supply curtailments lasting significantly longer.”

LNG Supply Stagnates as Market Tips Into Deficit

The analysts now expect global LNG supply to stagnate rather than expand in 2026, undermining earlier assumptions that new capacity would absorb regional disruptions.

“As a result, we now expect total available LNG supply in 2026 to be around 443 million tons—almost unchanged from 2025 levels of 442 million tons. New U.S. LNG additions this year will no longer offset outages across the Middle East and North Africa (with Egypt remaining a net importer through 2026). Even under assumptions of modest LNG demand growth, the market moves into deficit.”

Strait of Hormuz Disruption and Lasting Capacity Loss

Rabobank notes that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens later, the damage to regional LNG capacity and export flows will extend far beyond the immediate closure period.

“With a potential late-April Hormuz reopening, a restoration of energy flows is unlikely before July or August given the time it needs to backfill supply and return production. A return to pre-war flows has been rendered impossible after the attacks on Qatari LNG infrastructure.”

TTF Price Structure and Regional Competition for Cargoes

Given the updated disruption assumptions and supply constraints, Rabobank has increased its TTF forecasts not only for 2026 but also for nearer quarters.

“We are raising our Q2 TTF gas forecast to €61/MWh, with Q3-Q4 also higher at €50/MWh and €48/MWh. Given the current supply shortfall and the expected easing of restrictions later in the year, we continue to expect a significant Q2 price premium over later quarters. With both Asia and Europe competing for limited cargoes, the region that moves first will dictate the other’s response.”