Key Moments
- Global cocoa prices fell from almost $11,000 per ton to below $4,000, a nearly 70% decline.
- Ghana cut its official farmgate price by 28.6% to 41,392 cedis ($3,764 per ton) for the 2025/26 season.
- The Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria expects domestic cocoa output to drop by 11% to about 305,000 metric tons in 2025/26.
Global Price Slump Hits Nigerian Growers
Earlier in 2025, Nigerian cocoa producers enjoyed an income boost. However, prices have plunged nearly 70% from recent peaks. Many farmers now face financial stress and may abandon their farms.
A few months ago, cocoa futures reached nearly $11,000 per ton, raising hopes for sustained growth after long periods of price swings. Now, prices have dropped below $4,000 per ton, a 2.5-year low. This decline affects the entire cocoa value chain and leaves producers under pressure.
Futures Markets Show Weakness
The market downturn accelerated this week. March ICE New York cocoa futures fell 5.50% in a single session. In London, ICE cocoa contracts dropped 3.22%. For Nigeria—the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, with annual output of 280,000–300,000 metric tons—the speed of the decline is damaging.
Across West Africa, governments are responding to lower prices. Last week, Ghana cut its farmgate price by 28.6% to 41,392 cedis ($3,764 per ton) for the rest of 2025/26. Côte d’Ivoire is reviewing its fixed rate of CFA2,800 per kilogramme.
Key Market and Policy Metrics
| Indicator | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Previous peak global cocoa price | Almost $11,000 per ton | Recent high before current crash |
| Current global price level | Below $4,000 per ton | 2.5-year low |
| New York ICE futures move | -5.50% | Weekly decline in March contract |
| London ICE futures move | -3.22% | Single-session drop |
| Ghana farmgate price | 41,392 cedis ($3,764/ton) | 28.6% cut for 2025/26 |
| Côte d’Ivoire farmgate price | CFA2,800/kg | Under review |
| Estimated Nigerian output | 280,000–300,000 tons | Annual production range |
| Projected 2025/26 Nigeria output | About 305,000 tons | 11% year-on-year decline |
| Peak local equivalent price | ₦18 million per ton | During recent price surge |
World Cocoa Foundation Highlights Strain
The World Cocoa Foundation’s annual meeting in Amsterdam highlighted growing challenges. WCF President Chris Vincent said Ghanaian and Ivorian officials did not attend due to market volatility. “The instability is straining farms and institutions,” he said.
Both countries are recovering from earlier supply disruptions. Meanwhile, global inventories are rebuilding. As a result, Nigerian farmers face price swings without the previous supply constraints that once supported higher income.
Supply Recovery Shifts Market Balance
Dr. Sam Orisajo, Research Director at the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria, called the price collapse a classic supply-demand outcome. “When supply exceeds demand, cocoa prices drop. That is exactly what is happening,” he said.
He explained that local prices follow international benchmarks. “Prices in Nigeria are determined by global markets. Whatever happens internationally affects our local farmers,” he said.
At the rally’s peak, Nigerian cocoa reached ₦18 million per ton due to diseases limiting output in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. “Ghana had a swollen shoot virus. Buyers turned to Nigeria for high-quality cocoa, pushing prices up,” Orisajo added.
Now, as production recovers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, the market is oversupplied. Orisajo advised farmers not to panic: “Cocoa prices fluctuate regularly. Those who manage resources during highs will withstand lows.”
Rising Distress Among Nigerian Smallholders
Despite reassurances, smallholder farmers in Ondo, Osun, Cross River, and Edo states face financial stress. The Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria expects a national output drop of 11% to 305,000 tons in 2025/26. This decline may provide limited price support and does little to ease liquidity problems.
Association President Adeola Adegoke said farmers feel disconnected from global pricing. “The London market sets cocoa prices without considering our investment or labor costs,” he said.
Adegoke warned that farmers may cut cocoa trees for other crops if conditions do not improve. This could damage Nigeria’s production base amid ageing farms, low yields, and climate pressures.
Renewed Push for a National Cocoa Board
Farmers and industry participants are calling for a regulatory body to stabilize incomes. They advocate reviving a National Cocoa Management Board to coordinate development and support sustainability.
“There is growing demand for a Nigerian Cocoa Board to regulate the sector, coordinate development, and drive sustainable growth,” Adegoke said.
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