NZD/USD Slips as Dollar Strengthens Ahead of New Zealand GDP and U.S. CPI

Key Moments

Dollar Recovery Pressures Kiwi Ahead of Key Data

The NZD/USD pair is trading under modest pressure during the European session on Wednesday, slipping about 0.15% to hover near 0.5775. The New Zealand Dollar is losing ground against the U.S. Dollar as the Greenback stages a strong recovery following the latest U.S. labor market data for October and November.

At the time of writing, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – which measures the Dollar against a basket of six major currencies – is up 0.33%, trading close to 98.50. The Dollar’s advance comes despite the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report showing that the U.S. Unemployment Rate increased to 4.6% in November, marking the highest level since September 2021.

Market participants are now turning their attention to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November, scheduled for release on Thursday, which is expected to be the next major catalyst for Dollar moves.

NZD now at 13 year lows against multiple currencies – hope you don't have to travel or invest elsewhere. This is one of the impacts of low interest rates against others too that media commentators hardly touch. #nzpol #kiwi https://t.co/Pycp1YRLpY

— Mountain_Tui (@Mountain_Tui) December 16, 2025

Kiwi Holds Relative Strength Ahead of Q3 GDP

Although investors have been favoring the U.S. Dollar over the New Zealand Dollar in the NZD/USD pair, the NZD is showing relative resilience against several other major currencies ahead of New Zealand’s third-quarter Gross Domestic Product data, due on Thursday.

Consensus expectations point to a 0.9% expansion in New Zealand GDP for Q3, following a -0.9% contraction in the second quarter. This anticipated rebound in economic activity is providing some underlying support to the Kiwi, even as it softens against the resurgent U.S. Dollar.

NZD/USD Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, NZD/USD is currently trading near 0.5775, down about 0.15% on the day. The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5753 is helping to maintain a constructive short-term bias for the pair.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased back to 58 after reaching overbought territory, indicating that the recent move is more of a corrective pullback within an overall bullish momentum rather than a trend reversal.

Initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 0.5753. A decisive break below this level could open the door to a deeper retracement toward the December low at 0.5711. On the upside, if the pair can hold above the December 11 high at 0.5832 on a sustained basis, it would pave the way for a potential move toward the psychological 0.5900 level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

New Zealand GDP: Definition and Market Impact

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for New Zealand, published quarterly by Statistics New Zealand, measures the total value of goods and services produced in the country during the reference period. It is regarded as the primary gauge of New Zealand’s economic performance.

The quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) reading compares output in the reference quarter with the previous quarter. A stronger-than-expected GDP print is typically interpreted as supportive for the New Zealand Dollar, while a weaker figure tends to be negative for the currency.

The GDP series is closely watched by financial markets because of its influence on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy stance. Stronger GDP growth generally signals improving economic conditions and can support expectations for tighter policy, which is usually positive for the NZD. Conversely, weaker growth indicates softer activity and may weigh on the currency. An outcome above market forecasts is typically seen as NZD bullish.