Forex Market: EUR/USD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3576-1.3641 and closed at 1.3612.

At 7:34 GMT today EUR/USD was adding 0.08% for the day to trade at 1.3622. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3635 at 6:55 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Euro zone’s gauge of economic sentiment probably improved to a reading of 103.0 in June from 102.7 in the previous month, that was the strongest since June 2011.

This is a compound index, that is comprised of five sub-indexes, reflecting sentiment in different sectors of the economy. It includes consumer confidence, industrial confidence, confidence in the sector of services, confidence in the retail trade sector and confidence in the sector of construction.

Readings above the key level of 100.0 are indicative that optimistic forecasts overwhelm pessimistic ones. The more readings distance from it, the stronger the economic confidence is. The official reading is due out at 9:00 GMT.

United States

The monthly survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan may show that the final reading of the US consumer confidence improved to 82.0 this month from a preliminary reading of 81.2 estimated on June 13. The survey encompasses about 500 respondents throughout the country. The index is comprised by two major components, a gauge of current conditions and a gauge of expectations. The current conditions index is based on the answers to two standard questions, while the index of expectations is based on three standard questions. All five questions have an equal weight in determining the value of the overall index.

In case the gauge of consumer sentiment showed a larger improvement than projected, this would boost demand for the dollar. The official reading is due out at 13:55 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3643, it will probably continue up to test 1.3675. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3708.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3578, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3545. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3513.