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Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 62.925-65.266. The pair closed at 63.284, plummeting 1.86% on a daily basis, while extending losses from Monday. Mondays rate of decline has been the steepest since August 27th, when the cross depreciated 4.04%. Yesterdays low has been the lowest level since August 11th, when the cross registered a low of 62.780. In weekly terms, USD/RUB went up 0.93% last week, breaking a string of three consecutive weekly losses.

At 8:49 GMT today USD/RUB was losing 1.65% for the day to trade at 62.413. The pair came in proximity to the lower range breakout level (S4), as it touched a daily low at 62.063 at 8:19 GMT. It has been the lowest level since August 3rd, when a daily low of 61.290 was reached.

Today the cross may be influenced by a number of macroeconomic reports as listed below.


United States

Consumer credit change

The money amounts, borrowed by consumers probably decreased to USD 19.0 billion in August, according to market expectations, from USD 19.1 billion in July. Given the current state of the economy, a higher-than-expected amount borrowed is usually considered as dollar positive, as it implies a potential increase in consumer spending and accelerated growth, respectively. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve is to release the official numbers at 19:00 GMT.

Global GDP forecast revised down

Yesterday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down its global economy outlook, saying that global GDP will probably increase 3.1% in 2015 (down from a 3.3% growth expected previously) and 3.6% in 2016 (down from a 3.8% growth expected previously). The sharpest revisions of the GDP growth rate were announced for developing economies such as the Russian Federation, Brazil, South Africa and Nigeria.

Correlation with Major pairs

Taking into account the week ended on October 4th and the daily closing levels of the currency pairs involved, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

USD/RUB to EUR/USD (0.9266, or very strong)
USD/RUB to GBP/USD (0.8368, or very strong)
USD/RUB to USD/CAD (0.2376, or weak)
USD/RUB to USD/JPY (-0.2759, or weak)
USD/RUB to NZD/USD (-0.3758, or moderate)
USD/RUB to AUD/USD (-0.4123, or moderate)
USD/RUB to USD/CHF (-0.5471, or strong)

1. During the examined period USD/RUB moved almost equally in one and the same direction with GBP/USD and EUR/USD.

2. USD/RUB moved strongly in the opposite direction compared to USD/CHF during the past week.

3. The correlation between USD/RUB and USD/CAD, USD/RUB and USD/JPY was insignificant during the period in question.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/RUB are presented as follows:

R1 – 63.499
R2 – 63.713
R3 (range resistance) – 63.928
R4 (range breakout) – 64.572

S1 – 63.069
S2 – 62.855
S3 (range support) – 62.640
S4 (range breakout) – 61.996

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/RUB are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 65.841
R1 – 66.963
R2 – 67.815
R3 – 68.937

S1 – 64.989
S2 – 63.867
S3 – 63.015

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