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Forex Market: EUR/HKD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/HKD within the range of 9.8752-9.9436. The pair closed at 9.9289, gaining 0.40% on a daily basis.

At 6:18 GMT today EUR/HKD was up 0.20% for the day to trade at 9.9511. The pair touched a daily high at 9.9529 at 6:13 GMT.

Fundamentals

Hong Kong Consumer inflation

The annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) in Hong Kong probably remained steady at 3.90% in September, according to the median forecast by experts. In August annualized inflation eased to 3.9% from 4.0% in July due to lower rental cost pressures. Prices of electricity, gas and water surged at an annialized rate of 24.3% in August, mostly because some households had used up the full amount of Governments one-off electricity charge subsidy, according to the report by the Census and Statistics Department. Prices of alcoholic drinks and tobacco went up 7.6%, as duty on tobacco was increased. At the same time, housing costs rose 4.9%, prices of meals bought away from home were 4.7% up, while transport costs increased 2.2%. Prices of durable goods dropped at an annualized rate of 3.6% in August.

The CPI is based on a monthly survey and represents a sample of 980 consumer goods and services classified into 9 major groups. Main categories include Housing sector (accounting for 31.6% of total weight), Food (27.5%) and Miscellaneous Services such as education, communications, information and medical care (15.9%). Transport comprises 8.5% of the total index, Durable Goods – 5.2%, Miscellaneous Goods – 4.2% and Clothing and Footwear – 3.4%.

In case the CPI eased down more than anticipated, this would have a bearish effect on the local currency. Hong Kongs Census and Statistics Department is to release the official CPI data at 8:30 GMT.

Pivot Points

eur-hkd

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 9.9159. In case EUR/HKD manages to breach the first resistance level at 9.9566, it will probably continue up to test 9.9843. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 10.0250.

If EUR/HKD manages to breach the first key support at 9.8882, it will probably continue to slide and test 9.8475. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 9.8198.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 9.8337, M2 – 9.8679, M3 – 9.9021, M4 – 9.9363, M5 – 9.9705, M6 – 10.0047.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 9.8950. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 10.0008, R2 – 10.1008, R3 – 10.2066. The three key support levels are: S1 – 9.7950, S2 – 9.6892, S3 – 9.5892.

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