Forex Market: USD/CAD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session USD/CAD traded within the range of 1.1009-1.1031 and closed at 1.1020.

At 11:14 GMT today USD/CAD was gaining 0.04% for the day to trade at 1.1017. The pair touched a daily high at 1.1024 at 10:15 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

Existing home sales in the U.S. probably decreased to an annualized 4.55 million units pace in March, according to the median analyst estimate. In February compared to January the index of existing home sales dropped 0.4% to a level of 4.6 million. The sample of data encompasses condos, co-ops and single-family houses.

Statistical data on existing home sales is often used along with statistical figures regarding the New home sales and Pending home sales, with the major objective being to draw a conclusion how nation’s housing sector is performing, regardless of interest rates. The most active house-purchasing period in the United States is usually between the months of March through June. Therefore, in case statistical data revealed a sudden drop in the number of homes sold rather than an improvement during this period, this would be considered as a signal of weakness in country’s housing market.

The report on existing home sales usually does not cause a real direct impact on US economy. Actually, this effect appears to be minimal, due to the fact that nothing is produced with the mere sale of an existing home. In terms of economic activity, the sale of an existing house may be related only to interior design and purchases of new furniture.

At 14:00 GMT the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will report on existing home sales in the United States during March. In case the index increased more than anticipated, this would support the greenback.

Canada

Wholesale sales in Canada probably increased by 0.8% in February, following a 0.8% gain in the previous month, according to the median analyst’ estimate.

The study measures monthly sales of Canadian wholesalers from each province or region. It provides information about the situation in the wholesale sector and is an important indicator of the state of the Canadian economy. The total value of sales is calculated by deflating the current value in dollars, using the indices for imports and industrial prices. Since many of the products to wholesalers in the country are subject to import fluctuations of the Canadian dollar, this can have a significant impact on the prices of goods bought and sold by them. This is the percentage change from the previous month.

Statistics Canada is scheduled to publish the official report at 12:30 GMT today. A higher than expected gain would certainly heighten the appeal of the loonie.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case USD/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.1031, it will probably continue up to test 1.1042. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.1053.

If USD/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.1009, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.0998. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.0987.