OPEC will barely have to raise oil output in the next five years as U.S. shale oil is planned to meet most of the new worldwide demand, even if the global economy picks up the pace, the Wests energy agency said on Tuesday.
According to the International Energy Agency, which analyses global oil supply and demand trends, U.S. and Canadas output is high enough to meet an eventual heightened demand. According to the IEAs forecast oil demand should rise by 8% between 2012 and 2018 and reach 96.7 million bpd, based on an IMF global economic growth prediction of of 3-4,5% for the period.
“Following several years of stronger-than-expected North American supply growth, the shockwaves of rising U.S. shale gas and light tight oil and Canadian oil sands production are reaching virtually all recesses of the global oil market.” the IEA said.
Seeing OPEC as a last resort for the world to meet increased demand, the IEA forecasts a 10% rise in non-OPEC oil production, which should increase to 59,31 bpd between 2012 and 2018. The agency lowered its estimate for OPEC oil production by 1.22 million bpd to 29.99 million bpd up to 2017. Some of the OPEC members are experiencing difficulties due to the impaired investment and capacity growth as a result of the “Arab Spring”. Irans oil production is also estimated to fall by 2018 by around 1 million bpd due to Western sanctions against the countrys nuclear programme.