Key Moments
- World Steel Association now expects global steel demand to decline 0.1% in 2026, versus its earlier projection of 0.3% growth.
- Forecasts have been downgraded across key regions, including China, the European Union, Britain, and the Gulf.
- India is projected to remain the fastest-growing major steel market, with demand seen rising 7.9% in 2026 and 8% in 2027.
Global Forecasts Revised Lower
The World Steel Association reduced its global steel demand outlook for 2026 on Monday, pointing to softer consumption in China and disruptions linked to the US-Israeli war with Iran.
The association now expects worldwide steel demand to contract by 0.1% in 2026. This compares with its previous forecast from April, which anticipated growth of 0.3% for the same period.
Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chair of World Steel’s economics committee, said the expected rebound in demand is unfolding more slowly and gradually than the organization had initially projected.
Looking ahead to 2027, the World Steel Association also lowered its growth forecast, cutting its estimate for global steel demand expansion to 1.7% from 2.2%.
Regional Demand Outlook
The association highlighted diverging regional trends, with particular weakness in China, Europe, and the Gulf, contrasted with continued strength in India.
| Region / Market | Year | Latest Steel Demand Forecast | Previous Forecast (if stated) | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | 2026 | -0.1% | +0.3% growth | Recovery described as slower and more gradual than expected |
| Global | 2027 | +1.7% growth | +2.2% growth | Demand growth outlook cut |
| China | This year | -2% demand | Not specified | Ongoing property downturn lasting longer than anticipated |
| European Union and Britain | 2026 | -0.3% demand | +1.3% growth | Construction recovery slower and more uneven than expected |
| Gulf | 2026 | -11% demand | Not specified | Sharp slowdown amid security-related disruptions |
| Gulf | 2027 | +11.3% growth | Not specified | Demand expected to rebound |
| India | 2026 | +7.9% growth | Not specified | Fastest-growing major steel market |
| India | 2027 | +8% growth | Not specified | Continued strong demand expansion |
China, Europe, and Gulf Weigh on Outlook
In China, steel demand is predicted to fall 2% this year as the downturn in the country’s property sector persists longer than the association had expected.
The situation in Europe has also deteriorated. The World Steel Association now anticipates steel demand in the European Union and Britain will decline 0.3% in 2026. This marks a reversal from its earlier view, which had called for a 1.3% increase, as the construction sector’s recovery is unfolding more slowly and unevenly than previously thought.
The Gulf region faces an even sharper setback. Steel demand there is forecast to drop 11% in 2026, before staging a recovery with an 11.3% increase in 2027.
“What we observe (in the Gulf) is not the destruction of demand but its deferral, as project awards, construction starts and financing decisions are pushed back while the security situation remains unresolved,” Hidalgo de Calcerrada said.
He said that demand in the Gulf is expected to rebound forcefully once uncertainty eases, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and supply chains return to normal.
India Stands Out as Growth Leader
Against this backdrop of broad-based downgrades, India remains a bright spot. The World Steel Association said India continues to be the fastest-growing major steel market globally.
Steel demand in India is forecast to increase 7.9% in 2026 and 8% in 2027, according to the association.
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