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Key Moments:

  • EUR/GBP has retreated from the 0.8500 area and is heading for a roughly 1.6% slide over a nine-day losing streak.
  • Brent crude has rebounded above $100, increasing concerns about strain on Eurozone growth.
  • Bears are targeting the 16-month low at 0.8455, with 0.8410 seen as a potential next downside level.

Euro Extends Slide Against Sterling

The Euro (EUR) continues to weaken against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, with EUR/GBP on pace for an almost 1.6% decline over a nine-session losing run. A brief recovery attempt stalled near 0.8500 on Tuesday, drawing in sellers and driving the pair back toward the 0.8475 region, leaving the 16-month trough at 0.8455 within reach.

The Euro had bounced from levels just above its year-to-date lows on Tuesday as France’s benchmark 10-year OAT yield dropped 17 basis points. The move followed far-right politician Marine Le Pen’s proposal to cut France’s government spending by 140 billion over the next five years. Le Pen is described as the best positioned to win next year’s presidential contest, and her remarks helped underpin sentiment in Euro crosses by offering some reassurance to markets.

Oil Price Surge Overshadows Data Support

The earlier recovery in the common currency has proved short-lived. Renewed attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces in Saudi Arabia have driven Oil Prices higher, pushing Brent crude above the key $100 threshold and intensifying worries about the Eurozone’s economic outlook. In this environment, a stronger-than-expected reading in German Industrial Production has had little visible impact on the broader Euro narrative.

Technical Outlook: Support Levels in Focus

EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8473 and continues to respect the broader bearish pattern that has been in place since the late September highs. On the 4-hour chart, momentum signals are mixed: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly positive, while the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 30.8, hovering just above oversold territory. This configuration suggests that attempts to rebound are likely to encounter selling pressure.

Tuesday’s rejection near 0.8493 has left the 16-month low at 0.8455 (the July 15 low) vulnerable. A break below that area would open the door toward the early June 2025 lows near 0.8410, which appear to be a realistic downside objective. On the other hand, a sustained move back above 0.8500 would alleviate some of the immediate bearish pressure and turn attention toward the October 2 high at 0.8527, followed by the former support band around 0.8550, which now acts as resistance.

Euro Performance Against Major Currencies

The following table shows today’s percentage changes in the Euro (EUR) versus other major currencies. According to the data, the Euro has shown its strongest performance against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.39%0.19%0.13%0.09%0.19%0.28%0.06%
EUR-0.39%-0.20%-0.25%-0.30%-0.21%-0.11%-0.34%
GBP-0.19%0.20%-0.06%-0.10%-0.01%0.09%-0.13%
JPY-0.13%0.25%0.06%-0.04%0.06%0.14%-0.06%
CAD-0.09%0.30%0.10%0.04%0.10%0.19%-0.02%
AUD-0.19%0.21%0.00%-0.06%-0.10%0.10%-0.12%
NZD-0.28%0.11%-0.09%-0.14%-0.19%-0.10%-0.20%
CHF-0.06%0.34%0.13%0.06%0.02%0.12%0.20%
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