Key Moments:
- EUR/JPY traded around 179.20 during Asian hours on Thursday after ending a four-day losing streak, but remained locked inside a descending channel.
- The cross is holding below its nine-day and 50-day EMAs, with the 14-day RSI at 40.46 signaling neutral-to-soft momentum.
- Downside levels include the channel floor near 176.80 and an 11-month low at 175.70, while resistance is seen at 179.22, 181.74, 184.40, and 187.95.
Technical Overview
EUR/JPY halted a four-session decline and was last quoted near 179.20 in Asian trading on Thursday. Despite the modest stabilization, the daily chart indicates that the pair remains trapped within a descending channel, reinforcing a broadly bearish technical structure.
The cross continues to exhibit a negative short-term tone as it trades beneath both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Trading below these reference lines suggests that recovery attempts are likely to encounter selling interest. At the same time, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40.46, reflecting neutral-to-soft momentum and pointing to constrained upside rather than a clearly oversold setup.
Key Technical Levels
Price action inside the descending channel is defining the near-term range for EUR/JPY. The following table summarizes the main levels referenced in the analysis:
| Type | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Support | 176.80 | Lower boundary of descending channel |
| Support | 175.70 | 11-month low recorded in November 2025 |
| Resistance | 179.22 | Nine-day EMA and immediate barrier |
| Resistance | 181.74 | 50-day EMA |
| Resistance | 184.40 | Upper boundary of descending channel |
| Resistance | 187.95 | All-time high set on April 17 |
On the downside, the pair may extend losses toward the channel floor around 176.80. A break below that area would expose the 11-month trough at 175.70, which was registered in November 2025.
On the topside, EUR/JPY is currently challenging the nine-day EMA at 179.22. Clearing this short-term average could open the way for a more pronounced rebound, with scope to test the 50-day EMA at 181.74. Above that, additional resistance is located near the upper boundary of the descending channel, around 184.40, and then at the all-time high of 187.95, which was posted on April 17.
BoJ Policy Outlook and Yen Dynamics
Analysts at MUFG/BTMU noted that former Bank of Japan (BoJ) official Kazuo Momma’s comments on the anticipated pace of policy tightening are in line with their own expectations. According to their assessment, he believes the “basic pace will probably be once every three months,” a path MUFG/BTMU view as compatible with their projection for “another hike before the end of this year at the December policy meeting.”
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