Grain futures advance, soybeans gain amid speculation for strong USDA export data

Grain futures advanced on Thursday, soybeans increased on speculation a government report later today may show US exports accelerated last week.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans futures for settlement in March surged by 0.23% to trade at $13.3762 per bushel by 14:52 GMT. Prices touched a session high at $13.3850 per bushel, while day’s low stood at $13.2288 per bushel. Yesterday, prices touched $13.3988 per bushel, the strongest level since December 23. The oilseed settled last month 0.45% lower, after it lost 8.5% in 2013.

Market players keenly awaited the release of the latest USDA export figures and predicted strong export volumes between 600 000 and 950 000 tons.

“Export inspections for soybeans rose as of 6th February, suggesting strong demand for U.S. soybeans. This puts in place a situation of strong export demand ahead of the release of U.S. export sales data for soybeans tonight,” said Vanessa Tan, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore, cited by Thomson Reuters.

DTN.com reported on February 12 that the extreme heat and dryness in southern Brazil will continue to stress filling soybeans and corn for one more day, after which showers and more seasonal temperatures may develop on Thursday and Friday. The showers will ease some stress on soybeans, but according to the website, significant amounts of rainfall will be needed to prevent further stress to the crop. Hotter conditions will return during the weekend and on Monday, before showers and cooler weather have the chance to redevelop later next week.

Meanwhile, soybeans and corn producing regions in central Argentina will benefit from adequate to surplus soil moisture, except for some areas where recent heavy storms have caused serious flooding. According to the website, a break in the action may occur soon, but it may not last long, before more thunderstorms redevelop during the weekend.

Elsewhere on the grains market, corn futures for March delivery traded at $4.4062 a bushel by 14:48 GMT, adding 0.23%% for the day. Futures hit a session high at $4.4188 per bushel, while day’s low was touched at $4.3912 per bushel.

The grain increased 4.3% so far this year after it lost nearly 40% in 2013, the steepest annual drop on record and the worst annual performance since at least 1959.

Wheat up as well

On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat futures for settlement in March added 0.69% to trade at $5.9062 per bushel by 14:49 GMT. Prices touched a session high of $5.9338 per bushel, while day’s bottom was touched at $5.8538. Yesterday, prices jumped to $5.9800 per bushel, the strongest level since January 8.

The grain settled last week 4.1% higher, the biggest gain since the period ended September 27. However, wheat slumped 22% last year, marking the largest annual decline since 2008, on expectations for a record global output of 712.7 million tons, according to data by the US Department of Agriculture.

DTN’s February 12th forecast called for very cold weather over the Midwest early this week, with the pattern moderating somewhat later in the week. The expected storm will track across the most eastern and southern parts of the region, likely remaining east and south of the Midwest producing areas. A possible return to stormy weather may be expected, but temperatures will not be as freezing as they have been recently.

Meanwhile, the website reported that a much warmer trend is expected over the Southern Plains at the end of this week. The warmer weather may favor the dormant wheat crop, but will also melt the protective snow cover. The soil moisture of the wheat belt may be recharged later this month as an active pattern is expected, but forecasts remain somewhat uncertain for now.