Key Moments
- Etsy Inc (NASDAQ:ETSY) climbed 2.9% in premarket trading after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to Outperform with a $90 price target.
- Oppenheimer highlighted benefits from artificial intelligence search, product enhancements, and stronger app engagement and conversion trends.
- The firm lifted its fiscal 2026 GMS forecast by 1% and now projects 5% GMS growth in fiscal 2027 and 2028, valuing Etsy at 12 times 2027 EBITDA.
Analyst Upgrade Drives Premarket Move
Etsy Inc (NASDAQ:ETSY) traded higher in premarket action on Tuesday, rising 2.9% after Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein upgraded the stock from Perform to Outperform and assigned a $90 price objective.
Helfstein tied the rating change to a combination of artificial intelligence-driven search benefits, ongoing product enhancements, and improvements in app engagement and conversion metrics.
Traffic Trends and GMS Outlook
The analyst pointed to regression analysis of SimilarWeb visit data, which he said indicates that non-app buyers in the third quarter were flat year over year. This compares with a 3% decline in non-app buyers in the second quarter and, in Helfstein’s view, supports the potential for Etsy to reach the upper end of its gross merchandise sales guidance.
For the second half, Helfstein projected that non-app gross merchandise sales growth will be in line with the second quarter. At the same time, he assumed, on a conservative basis, no improvement in app gross merchandise sales on a two-year comparison, even though he acknowledged visible product upgrades.
Consumer Survey and Competitive Positioning
Oppenheimer referenced a firm-conducted survey of 2,500 U.S. consumers, which the analyst said indicates that Etsy’s recent product changes are resonating with users. The results suggested to Helfstein that the company maintains a strong competitive moat and is becoming less reliant on Google Search for demand.
Revised GMS Forecasts and Valuation Framework
The firm raised its fiscal 2026 gross merchandise sales estimate by 1%, placing it at what it described as the high end of Street expectations. Oppenheimer now expects Etsy’s GMS to grow 5% in fiscal 2027 and 2028, even while assuming some share loss in the online handmade market.
Helfstein’s $90 price target is derived from a valuation of 12 times projected 2027 EBITDA. According to the note, this multiple represents a 10% discount to eBay, despite what the analyst characterized as comparable growth prospects.
| Metric / Assumption | Oppenheimer View |
|---|---|
| Rating | Upgraded from Perform to Outperform |
| Price Target | $90 |
| Premarket share move | +2.9% |
| 3Q non-app buyers (YoY) | Flat (vs 2Q’s 3% decline) |
| Fiscal 2026 GMS estimate | Raised by 1%, at high end of Street estimates |
| Fiscal 2027-2028 GMS growth | 5% annually |
| Valuation basis | 12x 2027 EBITDA |
| Relative valuation | 10% discount to eBay, with similar growth expectations |
| Consumer survey sample | 2,500 U.S. consumers |
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