Key Moments
- Rabobank flags low European gas storage and disrupted Gulf LNG shipments as key supports for TTF prices.
- The bank sees 2026 TTF averaging €60/MWh in Q4, with a base-case forecast of €42/MWh for 2027.
- An infrastructure-damage scenario could keep 2027 TTF trading in a €50–60/MWh range.
Rabobank Outlook on TTF Natural Gas
Rabobank analyst Florence Schmit notes that TTF Natural Gas continues to draw support from tight European fundamentals and supply disruptions originating in the Gulf region. According to the analysis, low gas inventory levels across Europe, combined with interruptions to LNG flows from the Gulf, are helping to maintain a structural risk premium in TTF prices.
Rabobank projects that TTF will average €60/MWh in the fourth quarter of 2026. Looking further ahead, the bank maintains a base-case forecast of €42/MWh for 2027, while acknowledging that elevated prices could persist under more adverse supply scenarios.
Hormuz Strait and Gulf LNG: Central Risk Factors
The outlook places particular emphasis on risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz and the status of LNG exports from Qatar. The analysis highlights that the lack of substantial progress in U.S.-Iran discussions is a central reason why a risk premium remains embedded in TTF pricing.
Rabobank underscores that the flow of LNG shipments through the Gulf is highly sensitive to political and security developments in the region, and that shipping confidence will be critical for any sustained normalization of supply dynamics.
| Year / Scenario | TTF Price View |
|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | Average €60/MWh |
| 2027 – Base case | €42/MWh |
| 2027 – Infrastructure damage scenario | More likely in €50–60/MWh range |
Quoted Commentary on Market Dynamics
“For gas markets, the key issue is therefore not whether an occasional vessel can pass through Hormuz, but whether negotiations can produce a stable framework that restores Qatari LNG exports on a sustained basis.”
“As long as there are no meaningful U.S.-Iran negotiations, there will be no meaningful surge in LNG flows out of the Gulf.”
“The stop-start pattern of cargoes will continue to leave Europe competing for marginal Atlantic supply at a time when storage remains low and winter demand is approaching.”
“That keeps European natural gas prices elevated: temporary progress on any type of corridor through Hormuz can trigger short-lived sell-offs, but only a credible political agreement that restores shipping confidence can remove the structural risk premium from TTF.”
“Our €42/MWh forecast for 2027 therefore remains the base case, while an infrastructure-damage scenario that delays the recovery in flows would make TTF more likely to trade in the €50–60/MWh range through much of next year.”
Key Moments
- Rabobank flags low European gas storage and disrupted Gulf LNG shipments as key supports for TTF prices.
- The bank sees 2026 TTF averaging €60/MWh in Q4, with a base-case forecast of €42/MWh for 2027.
- An infrastructure-damage scenario could keep 2027 TTF trading in a €50–60/MWh range.
Rabobank Outlook on TTF Natural Gas
Rabobank analyst Florence Schmit notes that TTF Natural Gas continues to draw support from tight European fundamentals and supply disruptions originating in the Gulf region. According to the analysis, low gas inventory levels across Europe, combined with interruptions to LNG flows from the Gulf, are helping to maintain a structural risk premium in TTF prices.
Rabobank projects that TTF will average €60/MWh in the fourth quarter of 2026. Looking further ahead, the bank maintains a base-case forecast of €42/MWh for 2027, while acknowledging that elevated prices could persist under more adverse supply scenarios.
Hormuz Strait and Gulf LNG: Central Risk Factors
The outlook places particular emphasis on risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz and the status of LNG exports from Qatar. The analysis highlights that the lack of substantial progress in U.S.-Iran discussions is a central reason why a risk premium remains embedded in TTF pricing.
Rabobank underscores that the flow of LNG shipments through the Gulf is highly sensitive to political and security developments in the region, and that shipping confidence will be critical for any sustained normalization of supply dynamics.
| Year / Scenario | TTF Price View |
|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | Average €60/MWh |
| 2027 – Base case | €42/MWh |
| 2027 – Infrastructure damage scenario | More likely in €50–60/MWh range |
Quoted Commentary on Market Dynamics
“For gas markets, the key issue is therefore not whether an occasional vessel can pass through Hormuz, but whether negotiations can produce a stable framework that restores Qatari LNG exports on a sustained basis.”
“As long as there are no meaningful U.S.-Iran negotiations, there will be no meaningful surge in LNG flows out of the Gulf.”
“The stop-start pattern of cargoes will continue to leave Europe competing for marginal Atlantic supply at a time when storage remains low and winter demand is approaching.”
“That keeps European natural gas prices elevated: temporary progress on any type of corridor through Hormuz can trigger short-lived sell-offs, but only a credible political agreement that restores shipping confidence can remove the structural risk premium from TTF.”
“Our €42/MWh forecast for 2027 therefore remains the base case, while an infrastructure-damage scenario that delays the recovery in flows would make TTF more likely to trade in the €50–60/MWh range through much of next year.”
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