Ripple, Stellar Struggle as Bearish Signals Dominate Market

Key Moments

Market Overview: XRP and XLM Under Pressure

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) remain under sustained selling pressure as uncertain broader market conditions and subdued technical momentum weigh on both altcoins. On Tuesday, XRP trades below the key $1 threshold, while XLM continues to retreat, holding beneath $0.157. Derivatives and on-chain metrics point to cautious positioning, leaving both cryptocurrencies exposed to additional downside risk.

Derivatives Positioning: Mild Bearish Bias Limits Recovery

Futures and funding data highlight a restrained outlook among market participants. CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for XRP stands at 0.80 on Tuesday, while XLM’s ratio is at 0.87, levels that are close to their weakest readings in a month. Ratios below 1 signal that short positions dominate, reflecting a bearish tilt as traders position for further declines.

Funding dynamics diverge between the two tokens. For XRP, the funding rate turned positive on Monday and is at 0.0042% on Tuesday, meaning long positions are paying shorts, a structure that typically reflects a bullish inclination in perpetual futures markets. By contrast, XLM’s funding rate has shifted into negative territory at -0.0054% on Tuesday, signaling that short positions are compensating longs and underscoring a bearish stance among derivatives traders.

On-Chain and Order Flow: Cautious Optimism Versus Selling Dominance

CryptoQuant’s summary data points to differing underlying dynamics between XRP and XLM. For XRP, futures markets show the presence of large whale orders, while other indicators remain neutral, leaving room for a potential recovery if conditions improve. XLM, however, exhibits selling-side dominance across both markets, coupled with large whale orders that underscore a cautious, risk-averse approach by traders.

XRP Technical Picture: Trading Below Key Support and EMAs

XRP changes hands at $0.99 on Tuesday, reinforcing a bearish near-term bias as it trades under key trend measures. The token is below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.07, the 100-day EMA at $1.15 and the 200-day EMA at $1.34. XRP also remains under the previously broken descending trendline reference at $1.00 and a horizontal resistance zone at $1.00, emphasizing the strength of overhead supply.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 35, indicating weak momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is slightly negative. Together, these indicators suggest continued downside bias rather than confirmation of a trend reversal.

XRP: Key Technical Reference Levels

On the upside, the immediate test sits at the psychological $1.00 zone, which coincides with the former trendline break level and a key horizontal barrier. A move above this cluster would bring the 50-day EMA at $1.07 into focus, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.15. Further out, resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier at $1.30, the 200-day EMA at $1.34 and a higher horizontal line at $1.90, all of which frame the upper bounds of any meaningful rebound.

The current dataset does not specify nearby downside reference levels beneath the present market price. As a result, any renewed decline from here would imply that XRP is vulnerable to additional downside price discovery until new demand reappears.

XLM Technical Picture: Ongoing Correction Below Major EMAs

XLM trades at $0.156 on Tuesday, continuing its corrective retreat while remaining below all major EMAs, which maintains a bearish near-term outlook. The 50-day EMA at $0.173, the 100-day EMA at $0.178 and the 200-day EMA at $0.190 all sit overhead, acting as trend-defining resistance and reinforcing the capped tone following the latest drop.

The RSI stands near 31, hovering close to oversold territory. At the same time, the MACD has turned marginally positive around the zero line, indicating that downside momentum is easing. However, this has not yet translated into a clear recovery signal as long as price remains below the cluster of moving averages and Fibonacci retracement levels.

XLM: Key Technical Reference Levels

On the upside, the first resistance zone is located around $0.173, where the 50-day EMA coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Above this region, the prior horizontal barrier at $0.177 and the 100-day EMA at $0.178 come into view. Higher resistance is outlined by the 200-day EMA at $0.190, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.200. Additional Fibonacci resistance levels appear at $0.218, $0.237 and $0.260, before the cycle high near $0.298 caps the upper boundary of the medium-term recovery scenario.

On the downside, attention centers on the support band defined by the horizontal floor at $0.142 and the structural low near $0.139. A clear break below this region would likely pave the way for a deeper bearish extension, even as momentum readings already signal stretched conditions.