Wheat Futures Extend Rally as Supply Outlook Tightens

Key Moments

Futures Hold Gains Across Major Wheat Contracts

Wheat prices were trading 1 to 4 cents higher across the three primary exchanges, maintaining the sharp strength seen at midday. The wheat complex had finished the prior session with strong gains, led by Chicago soft red winter (SRW) contracts, which settled between 13 ¾ and 22 ½ cents higher across the board. Short covering was evident, as open interest declined by 18,911 contracts.

Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) futures also posted firm advances, closing between 14 ½ and 21 ¾ cents higher. Minneapolis spring wheat futures ended the session 13 to 15 1/4 cents stronger.

Geopolitical Tensions Affect Black Sea Grain Flows

On Wednesday, Ukrainian drone attacks targeted Russia’s Novorossiysk port, bringing operations to a halt at the country’s largest port facility. In response, Russia struck a vessel in Ukraine’s Odesa port.

NASS Cuts U.S. Wheat Production Outlook

NASS Crop Production figures released this morning showed total U.S. wheat output for 2026 at 1.531 bbu, a decrease of 5 mbu from July. Winter wheat production was unchanged from the prior month at 990 mbu. Within that category, HRW production was reported at 463 mbu, down 8 mbu, while SRW remained steady at 287 mbu.

Spring wheat production was estimated at 474 mbu, a marginal decline of 1 mbu from last month. Durum production was pegged at 66 mbu, reflecting a 5 mbu reduction.

WASDE Tightens U.S. Stocks, Raises Global Supplies

WASDE data showed 2026/27 U.S. wheat ending stocks at 717 mbu, a reduction of 5 mbu that matched the cut to production. In contrast, global ending stocks were raised by 0.41 MMT to 273.25 MMT.

The increase in world stocks came from a 1 MMT upward adjustment to Canada and a 1.4 MMT increase for Ukraine, partially offset by a 1.8 MMT reduction for the EU. Russian export projections were lowered by 1.5 MMT, and Ukraine’s exports were trimmed by 0.5 MMT.

Export Sales Expectations

Weekly Export Sales data are scheduled for release this morning. Market participants are anticipating 2026/27 wheat export sales in a range between 200,000 and 500,000 MT.

Wheat Futures Snapshot

Disclosure

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.