Key Moments
- XAG/USD trades about 1% higher near $62.20 during the Asian session ahead of the July U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls release at 12:30 GMT.
- TD Securities projects July NFP at 70k with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, signaling a still subdued but stable labor market.
- Higher WTI oil prices near $77.00 and key technical levels at $59.66, $63.28, and $67.17 are in focus for silver traders.
Fundamental Drivers Ahead of U.S. Data
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading about 1% higher around $62.20 during Friday’s Asian session as market participants position ahead of the July U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT.
TD Securities anticipates only a modest rebound in job creation following June’s weaker-than-expected reading. The bank’s economists expect that “July NFP picked up modestly to 70k after surprising to the downside with 57k in June,” suggesting hiring remains soft. They also look for stability in the unemployment rate, stating that “the UE rate likely went sideways at 4.2% after declining in June,” indicating a labor market that appears broadly stable rather than clearly deteriorating.
The upcoming employment data is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, particularly in the absence of explicit “forward-guidance” from policymakers.
Oil Market Moves and Implications for Silver
On the global front, the recent strong recovery in crude oil prices is emerging as a counterweight to silver’s advance. The rebound follows diminished expectations for an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, described as a key transit route for nearly 20% of global energy supply, which is helping support oil prices.
At the time of writing, WTI crude oil is holding onto Thursday’s sharp recovery, trading near $77.00.
Rising oil prices tend to lift global inflation expectations, raising the risk that central banks may favor higher interest rates. Such a scenario typically weighs on non-yielding assets like silver, as tighter monetary policy can reduce the appeal of holding precious metals that do not generate income.
Technical Picture for XAG/USD
XAG/USD is trading close to $62.20 and remains above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.66. Price action above this moving average keeps the near-term backdrop constructive, as the market continues to hold above a key trend reference.
The Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 56.27, positioning the indicator in positive territory without signaling overbought conditions. This setup suggests that bullish momentum is still present but not yet stretched.
| Level / Indicator | Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Spot price (XAG/USD) | $62.20 (approx.) | Trading higher in Asian session |
| 20-period EMA | $59.66 | Immediate support; maintains constructive bias while above |
| RSI (14) | 56.27 | Positive momentum without overbought signal |
| YTD low | 54.77 | Key downside level if $59.66 fails |
| July 6 high | $63.28 | Immediate upside barrier |
| June 22 high | $67.17 | Next target if $63.28 breaks decisively |
On the downside, the 20-day EMA at $59.66 is seen as the first notable support. A sustained hold above this area would continue to reinforce the broader bullish structure. However, a failure to defend this moving average could expose the Year-To-Date low at 54.77.
On the upside, the July 6 peak at $63.28 represents the first key resistance. A clear break above that high would, according to the current technical setup, leave room for a move toward the June 22 high at $67.17.
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