Grain Futures Gain on Supply and Export Factors

Key Moments

Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures End Week on Firm Note

December corn (ZCZ26) futures on Friday added 3 1/2 cents to settle at $4.67 1/2, finishing the week with a gain of 6 1/2 cents. November soybeans (ZSX26) advanced 8 cents to $12.03, marking their highest close in two months and a weekly rise of 12 1/4 cents.

In the wheat complex, September soft red winter wheat (ZWU26) futures climbed 8 cents to $6.82 3/4 and were up 42 1/2 cents for the week. September hard red winter wheat (KEU26) futures increased 15 3/4 cents to $7.32 1/4, touched a seven-week high, and posted a weekly gain of 56 cents.

Grain contracts on Friday recovered smartly from early intraday weakness as buyers stepped in on price dips. Daily charts continue to reflect upward trends in the major grain futures, suggesting that, in the near term, price action is likely to remain sideways to higher.

Price and Weekly Performance Snapshot

Corn Supported by Weakening French Maize Conditions

Corn gained an additional layer of support from deteriorating crop ratings in France. FranceAgriMer reported on Friday that the quality of the country’s grain maize declined again during the prior week amid ongoing exceptionally dry and hot conditions. As of July 13, 41% of the French maize crop was rated good or excellent, down from 47% the previous week and sharply lower than 72% at the same time a year earlier.

Weather updates late Friday indicated some heat in the western U.S. early this week and a generally drier pattern for much of the Midwest over the coming two weeks. However, soils are expected to remain moist across most of the Corn Belt. The absence of widespread, intense heat across most areas through at least the next week is seen as favorable for corn pollination across much of the region.

Eastern South Dakota and eastern Nebraska are noted as exceptions, where soil moisture is already lower. By early August, a larger portion of the Midwest will require additional rainfall to preserve optimal yield prospects for both corn and soybeans.

The upcoming Pro Farmer crop tour in late August is set to move more squarely into the spotlight for corn and soybean market participants as July draws to a close.

Soybean Complex Buoyed by Export Sales and Strong Crush

Soybeans and soybean oil (ZLU26) drew buying interest on Friday after the USDA reported daily U.S. soybean sales of 340,000 metric tons to China, 256,634 metric tons to Mexico, and 110,000 metric tons to unknown destinations for 2026-27. Daily flash sales spanned four straight trading sessions last week, with China accounting for just over 1 million metric tons in total purchases.

Market participants are now questioning the longevity of China’s buying pace for U.S. soybeans, particularly in light of political tension following comments on Thursday in which President Donald Trump accused China of meddling in the 2020 U.S. election.

Domestically, soybean demand remains robust. NOPA’s latest soybean crush report showed 214 million bushels processed in June, exceeding all analyst projections and staging a strong rebound from the reduced activity seen during the May maintenance period.

Higher crude oil (CLQ26) prices on Friday also contributed to strength in soybean oil futures. Spread trading activity was evident, with traders buying bean oil and selling soybean meal futures.

Over the next week, August weather model projections are expected to become clearer and will be closely watched as a key driver of price action across the soybean complex ahead of the USDA’s initial survey-based yield estimate set for Aug. 12. August is described as arguably the most critical month for development of much of the U.S. soybean crop.

Wheat Markets Lifted by Supply Concerns and Technical Strength

Winter wheat futures on Friday attracted renewed technical buying after taking a breather on Thursday. Bulls head into the new trading week with the upper hand, supported by technically bullish weekly high closes in both soft red winter and hard red winter contracts.

On the fundamental side, fresh concerns emerged regarding Australian wheat production. An industry group reported late last week that it anticipates the wheat crop in Australia’s largest grain-exporting state to contract by almost 30% year-on-year, citing expectations for hot and dry conditions over the coming months, according to Bloomberg. In its first production survey for the 2026 crop, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia projected a wheat harvest of 9.5 million tons for the state, compared with 13.3 million tons in 2025.

At the same time, Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Friday that the outlook for this year’s harvest is good, while acknowledging fuel availability concerns across all regions. Andrey Sizov of the SovEcon Black Sea research consultancy told Reuters: “If there is no military solution to open up the Sea of Azov, and the situation drags on for most of the second half of the year, Russia could fall short of supplying the global market by 5 million to 10 million tons of wheat.”

These evolving supply-side issues are contributing to heightened sensitivity in wheat futures to any further disruptions or negative production news.

Upcoming USDA Data in Focus

Grain traders will be closely monitoring Monday afternoon’s USDA weekly crop progress report, including updated U.S. crop condition ratings, for additional guidance on the state of the domestic growing season.