Soybean Futures Rise on Fresh Buying, Export Demand

Key Moments

Early Tuesday Trade and Monday’s Futures Performance

Soybean futures were modestly higher in early Tuesday trade, adding 1 to 2 cents after a sharp move up in the prior session. On Monday, front-month soybean contracts advanced between 35 and 50 1/2 cents, while deferred contracts gained 23 to 32 cents.

Fresh buying interest was evident, with total open interest increasing by 45,619 contracts. Overnight, 26 deliveries were registered against July soybean futures. The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price rose 47 1/4 cents to $11.36 3/4.

Products: Soymeal and Soy Oil

Soymeal futures strengthened broadly, closing $5.10 to $9.10 higher across most listed contracts. Soybean oil futures also moved firmly higher, gaining 99 to 141 points.

There were no deliveries reported overnight against July soybean meal futures, and none were issued against July soybean oil. Late in the session, rumors circulated that China had stepped in as a buyer, with a reported purchase of 5 cargoes totaling 300,000 MT.

US Crop Progress and Condition

According to NASS Crop Progress data, 34% of the US soybean crop was reported blooming as of 7/5, which is 6 percentage points ahead of the normal pace. Pod setting reached 9%, running 3 percentage points faster than normal.

Crop condition ratings slipped by 1 percentage point to 64% good to excellent. The Brugler500 index for soybeans was unchanged at 365.

Weather Outlook

The 7-day forecast indicated expected rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota, primarily over the next couple of days. In the Eastern Corn Belt, precipitation totals were projected in a range from one-half inch to 2 inches over the next week, with up to an inch anticipated in parts of Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska.

The 8-14 day outlook pointed to warmer temperatures across the country, accompanied by a drier zone in the central United States.

Export Shipments and Marketing-Year Pace

USDA’s FGIS reported soybean export shipments of 528,350 MT (19.41 mbu) for the week ending July 2. Weekly loadings were 19% above the previous week and 31.9% higher than the same week a year earlier.

China was the leading destination at 268,115 MT, followed by Mexico at 64,664 MT and Japan at 46,176 MT. Cumulative marketing year exports for 2025/26 stood at 37.85 MMT (1.39 bbu), which was 18.2% below the same point in the prior year.

Managed Money Positioning

Commitment of Traders data indicated that managed money reduced its net long position in soybeans by 5,479 contracts in the week ending June 30, bringing the net long to 31,200 contracts.

Current and Recent Soybean Price Levels

Disclosure

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.