Key Moments
- WTI futures on NYMEX trade almost 3% lower near $87.60 during the European session on Thursday.
- Prices remain capped below the 20-day EMA at $91.52, reinforcing a bearish near-term technical outlook.
- Further downside could target $84.87 and potentially $78.88 if selling pressure persists.
Geopolitics Weigh on Crude as Peace Talks Continue
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX are trading sharply lower, down almost 3% to around $87.60 during the European session on Thursday. The decline comes as traders react to reports that diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran toward a lasting peace agreement remain in place despite recent exchanges of fire.
Earlier in the day, CNN reported, citing a diplomatic source, that discussions between Washington and Tehran are ongoing even after the latest round of attacks.
According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), late on Wednesday US President Trump instructed aides to send a message to Iran via Qatar that the attacks should not be interpreted as a “restart of all-out war,” describing them instead as a response to the downing of a US helicopter.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has carried out military operations against several targets in Iran over the past two days. These actions follow Tehran’s shooting down of a US Apache helicopter that had been patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week.
Against this backdrop, market participants are closely monitoring developments in the US-Iran dialogue, looking for new indications on the trajectory of negotiations aimed at securing a permanent peace deal.
WTI Technical Picture: 20-day EMA as Key Resistance
At the time of writing, US WTI crude is trading sharply lower around $87.60, maintaining a negative short-term bias as it remains below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $91.52. The fact that spot prices are trading under this important moving average highlights continued control by sellers.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 43, tilting lower but still above oversold territory. This configuration points to ongoing downside pressure without a clear indication that the bearish move is exhausted.
| Technical Level | Price | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Current price (WTI futures) | $87.60 | Trades almost 3% lower during the European session |
| 20-day EMA (resistance) | $91.52 | Break above needed to ease bearish bias |
| Support – June 9 low | $84.87 | First key downside level |
| Support – April 17 low | $78.88 | Deeper target if $84.87 fails |
| RSI | 43 (approx.) | Below neutral, above oversold |
On the upside, the initial hurdle is the 20-day EMA around $91.52. A sustained move above this level would be required to alleviate the current bearish bias and potentially pave the way for a more substantive rebound.
On the downside, if WTI extends its decline and breaks below the June 9 low at $84.87, the move could open the door for a further drop toward the April 17 low at $78.88.
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