Key Moments
- Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.6% to 13,695 a ton after earlier losses of as much as 0.5% during Asian trading.
- Jefferies analysts projected copper prices at $6.50 a pound ($13,000 a ton) in 2027 and an average of $8 a pound ($17,636 a ton) in 2030 and 2031.
- China’s May exports increased more than 19% year-over-year, signaling robust demand that supports industrial metals consumption.
Geopolitical Easing Lifts Risk Appetite
Copper extended its advance alongside other industrial metals as risk sentiment improved following a reduction in Middle East tensions. The market had been under pressure from a flare-up that threatened to derail negotiations to resolve the broader regional conflict, which had fueled inflation concerns and the possibility of higher interest rates that could weigh on global growth and metals demand.
Prices initially slipped in early Tuesday trading before turning higher, after Iran and Israel agreed to halt strikes against each other. The shift in geopolitical risk helped restore appetite for risk assets, benefiting copper and other base metals.
Price Action in Copper and Other Base Metals
On the London Metal Exchange, copper gained 0.6% to 13,695 a ton as of 9:10 a.m. local time, recovering from earlier declines of up to 0.5% during Asian hours. The move higher came in tandem with gains across the base metals complex.
Tin also advanced, rising 0.7% to $52,650 a ton.
| Metal | Price | Move | Venue / Time Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 13,695 a ton | +0.6% | London Metal Exchange, 9:10 a.m. local time |
| Copper (earlier in Asian hours) | – | Losses of as much as 0.5% | Asian trading |
| Tin | $52,650 a ton | +0.7% | Base metals market |
Jefferies Raises Long-Term Copper Price Outlook
Analysts at Jefferies reaffirmed a constructive view on copper, citing sustained strong demand for the industrial metal. They adopted a previously bullish scenario as their new base case, projecting that prices will reach $6.50 a pound ($13,000 a ton) in 2027. Their forecast also calls for an average price of $8 a pound ($17,636 a ton) in 2030 and 2031.
China’s Export Strength Supports Metals Demand
China’s export performance in May added a supportive macro backdrop for industrial metals. Exports were up more than 19% from a year earlier, surpassing expectations. The increase was driven by strong demand for artificial intelligence hardware, which more than offset disruptions linked to the Iran war. This robust export data signals positive momentum for metals consumption.
Monetary Policy Concerns and AI Risk Temper Bullishness
Despite the improved geopolitical backdrop and strong Chinese export figures, some investors have scaled back their bullish bets. Concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and uncertainty surrounding AI-related stocks have prompted profit-taking.
Still, expectations for the US Federal Reserve to raise rates and risks around AI stocks have led some bullish investors to exit, said Zhenting Zhou, a trader with Hangzhou Chenglian Industrial Co.
Tech Volatility and Positioning in Futures Markets
A three-day selloff in technology shares underscored vulnerabilities for base metals such as copper and tin, which are key inputs in electrical equipment. However, equity markets rebounded on Tuesday, providing some relief to metals sentiment.
In futures markets, positioning has turned more cautious. Aggregate open interest for copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on Monday dropped to its lowest level since September, according to data from the exchange, signaling that some participants have reduced exposure following recent volatility.
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