Key Moments:
- EUR/USD trades in a narrow range above 1.1600 after rebounding from the 1.1585-1.1580 zone, its weakest level since April 7.
- Geopolitical tensions around Iran and firm expectations for a 2026 Fed rate hike underpin the USD and cap euro gains.
- Bearish technical bias persists below key Fibonacci levels and the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, with 1.1591 and 1.1522 in focus on the downside.
EUR/USD Steadies After Recent Lows
The EUR/USD pair is unable to extend the prior session’s recovery from the 1.1585-1.1580 band – the lowest area since April 7 – and is oscillating between modest advances and declines during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. Even so, spot remains above the 1.1600 handle as participants monitor developments related to the crisis in the Middle East.
Market sentiment has been influenced by shifting expectations around the Iran situation. While there are renewed signals pointing toward a potential easing of tensions, investors are doubtful about the prospects for a comprehensive US-Iran agreement, given persistent disagreements concerning Tehran’s nuclear activities and an ongoing standoff at the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, hawkish tones in the latest FOMC Minutes have reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase in 2026, helping curb the US Dollar’s pullback from a six-week trough and weighing on EUR/USD.
Technical Picture: Bias Remains Soft Despite Support
From a chart perspective, EUR/USD maintains a short-term bearish tilt. The pair is trading below the 200-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour timeframe and under the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the March-April rise. The 14-period Relative Strength Index is hovering in the low-40s, pointing to restrained bullish momentum.
At the same time, the pair’s ability to hold above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement warrants prudence for aggressive downside positions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (12, 26, close, 9) has flattened just above the zero line with mildly positive readings, indicating that selling pressure has cooled but has not yet given way to a constructive bullish structure.
On the downside, the 61.8% retracement level around 1.1591 is expected to act as an initial support area. A decisive break below this marker would open the door toward the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1522, followed by the more important structural base near 1.1433.
On the upside, the 50.0% retracement at 1.1640 stands as immediate resistance. Beyond that, the 38.2% Fibonacci level near 1.1689, the 200-period SMA at 1.1712, and the 23.6% retracement at 1.1749 together form a concentrated supply region that could cap rallies unless buyers regain clear control. A sustained push above the 50.0% retracement would be required to challenge the prevailing negative near-term view.
USD Performance Against Major Currencies This Week
The following table displays the percentage change of the US Dollar (USD) against major currencies this week. According to the data, the USD has shown the greatest strength versus the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | — | -0.01% | -0.80% | 0.14% | 0.08% | 0.31% | -0.31% | 0.03% |
| EUR | 0.01% | — | -0.81% | 0.22% | 0.08% | 0.30% | -0.24% | 0.01% |
| GBP | 0.80% | 0.81% | — | 0.98% | 0.89% | 1.12% | 0.57% | 0.81% |
| JPY | -0.14% | -0.22% | -0.98% | — | -0.12% | 0.09% | -0.51% | -0.16% |
| CAD | -0.08% | -0.08% | -0.89% | 0.12% | — | 0.23% | -0.39% | -0.10% |
| AUD | -0.31% | -0.30% | -1.12% | -0.09% | -0.23% | — | -0.54% | -0.20% |
| NZD | 0.31% | 0.24% | -0.57% | 0.51% | 0.39% | 0.54% | — | 0.23% |
| CHF | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.81% | 0.16% | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.23% | — |
The heat map interpretation is straightforward: the base currency is selected from the left-hand column, and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar on the vertical axis and moving horizontally to the Japanese Yen cell provides the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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