Crypto Market Pauses as Middle East Risks Hurt Sentiment

Key Moments

Macro Backdrop: Geopolitics Dampens Risk Sentiment

Cryptocurrency markets softened on Monday after starting the week on a positive note. Bitcoin (BTC) advanced to an intraday high of $82,380 before losing steam and slipping below $81,000 at the time of writing. The pullback coincides with fading optimism around a potential peace deal in the Middle East and renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Altcoins followed Bitcoin lower, with Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple’s XRP trading down to around $2,236 and $1.44, respectively.

Trump Rejects Iran’s Proposal

United States (US) President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s counterproposal aimed at ending the war, calling it “totally unacceptable.” Markets had been factoring in the possibility of a final peace agreement during a fragile ceasefire, and the latest developments appeared to unsettle risk assets.

Media reports indicated that the proposal included recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and compensation for war damages. Despite Trump’s rejection, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said that everything in the proposal was “reasonable” and “generous” for Iran’s national interests as well as for the region’s and the world’s stability, according to a CNN report.

The backdrop points to heightened caution in the crypto complex, with investors likely to remain guarded in the near term.

Spot Crypto ETF Flows: Mixed Signals Across BTC, ETH, and XRP

Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded robust inflows of $623 million last week. However, US-listed products experienced outflows of $278 million on Thursday and $146 million on Friday, suggesting a more defensive stance from institutional participants toward the end of the week.

Ethereum spot ETFs showed relatively steady interest, with cumulative inflows of $71 million through Friday. There was a single day of outflows totaling $104 million on Thursday, according to SoSoValue data. Overall, cumulative inflows stand at $12.09 billion, with net assets under management at $13.73 billion.

XRP spot ETFs saw a notable improvement, drawing $34.21 million in inflows last week after marginal outflows of roughly $35,000 the previous week. Cumulative inflows now amount to $1.32 billion, while net assets under management average $1.12 billion.

Bitcoin Technicals: Holding Key Support, Eyeing 200-day EMA

Bitcoin trades around $80,845, maintaining a broadly constructive bullish structure. The price remains above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), located near $76,018 and $76,546, as well as above the SuperTrend support around $75,648. The 200-day EMA, near $81,982, now represents the next significant resistance level.

On the daily chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram sits slightly above zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 61, indicating ongoing, but not excessive, bullish momentum.

Initial support on the downside is expected from the 100-day EMA at $76,546, bolstered by the 50-day EMA at $76,018 and the SuperTrend line near $75,648 in the event of a deeper retracement. On the upside, a decisive daily close above the 200-day EMA at $81,982 could pave the way for additional gains. Failure to clear this barrier on repeated attempts may instead lead to sideways trade or a corrective move back toward the converging EMA and SuperTrend support area.

Ethereum: Capped by Major Averages Despite Buy-the-Dip Interest

Ethereum is changing hands at $2,334, reflecting a neutral near-term stance. The token is trading just above the 20-day Bollinger Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $2,322 and comfortably above the 50-day EMA near $2,275, implying underlying demand on pullbacks.

Upside momentum remains constrained, with price action below the 100-day EMA at $2,343 and well under the 200-day EMA at $2,564. The MACD histogram is slightly below the zero line on the daily chart, and the RSI sits around 53, signaling only modest bullish bias.

On the resistance side, the 100-day EMA near $2,343 forms the first barrier, followed by the upper Bollinger Band around $2,389, and then the 200-day EMA at $2,564. On the downside, the 20-day Bollinger midline at $2,322 offers initial support, with stronger backing from the 50-day EMA around $2,275 and the lower Bollinger Band near $2,254. A sustained break below this lower cluster would likely point to a deeper corrective phase.

XRP: Attempting to Build a Bullish Structure Below $1.50

XRP is trading at $1.44 as it attempts to consolidate a more constructive bias. The token has reclaimed the 50-period EMA and the Bollinger middle band, both around $1.41, and is testing a previously broken downward trendline near $1.44 that now acts as a key pivot area.

Momentum indicators are supportive but not stretched, with the daily RSI near 57 and the MACD histogram slightly positive. This configuration suggests that buying pressure is improving but has not yet reached extreme levels.

On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the trendline pivot at $1.44, followed by the upper Bollinger Band near $1.46. A clear break above this region would bring the 100-period EMA around $1.50 into view, ahead of the 200-period EMA near $1.71. On the downside, first-line support is located at the recovered 50-period EMA at $1.41, reinforced by the Bollinger middle band at the same level. A move below this zone would increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward the lower Bollinger Band around $1.36.