Crypto Markets Steady Near Weekly Peaks as ETF Demand Builds

Key Moments

Macro Backdrop and Market Sentiment

Bitcoin trades below its weekly peak of around $76,000 amid a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and expectations for potential new peace talks between the United States and Iran.

Ethereum is trading near its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as upside momentum stabilizes, helped by steady inflows into spot exchange-traded funds. XRP is consolidating gains above support at $1.44, backed by a Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) buy signal and firming risk-on sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) is extending gains above $75,000 at the time of writing on Friday, with buyers aiming to push past the weekly high near $76,000. Altcoins show a similarly constructive tone, with Ethereum (ETH) trading above $2,350 and Ripple (XRP) holding close to its weekly peak of $1.46.

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to weigh on risk assets, as a second round of US-Iran peace talks has not yet been confirmed. The US Navy is maintaining a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, adding pressure to global Oil and Gas supplies.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is in force and is expected to last 10 days. Despite the truce, tensions remain elevated, with Israeli forces still deployed in the Lebanese “security zone,” while Hezbollah has warned that it is keeping its “finger on the trigger,” in case of any “treachery and betrayal” during the ceasefire.

Overall crypto market sentiment has improved modestly this week, supporting a cautious risk-on mood. The crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 21 on Friday, up from 16 last week, although it continues to signal extreme fear.

ETF Inflows Support Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP

Institutional participation is reappearing through consistent inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs as BTC trades solidly above $75,000. US-listed spot ETFs recorded approximately $26 million in inflows on Thursday, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rise from a weekly open of $70,742.

Cumulative inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs currently total $57.08 billion, with net assets under management averaging $97.90 billion. Should these inflows persist alongside improving risk appetite, BTC could continue to grind higher, with the $80,000 psychological level in focus.

Ethereum spot ETFs also saw inflows of roughly $18 million on Thursday, marking six consecutive days of positive flows. Growing risk appetite has driven cumulative inflows in ETH spot ETFs to an average of $11.82 billion, with net assets under management at $13.69 billion. Further upside in Ethereum is likely to hinge on whether risk-on sentiment can be maintained.

Demand for XRP spot ETFs remains closely aligned with that for Bitcoin and Ethereum. On Thursday, XRP products attracted $11.87 million in inflows. Cumulative inflows stand at $1.26 billion, while net assets under management are $1.08 billion, reflecting continued interest in XRP-related vehicles.

Bitcoin Technical Picture: Testing Support Above $75,000

Bitcoin is trading at $75,286, maintaining a constructive bullish stance as it holds just above the 100-day EMA at $75,277 and comfortably above the 50-day EMA at $71,468. This alignment of moving averages points to underlying demand supporting the recent advance.

Momentum readings are consistent with the bullish bias. The MACD histogram is positive and rising on the daily chart, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 64, indicating firm buying interest without signaling overbought conditions.

On the upside, the immediate hurdle is the weekly high at $76,370. A decisive move above this level would clear the way toward the 200-day EMA at $82,918. On the downside, the 100-day EMA around $75,277 is the first support. A daily close back below this level would signal waning short-term momentum and bring the 50-day EMA near $71,468 into view as the next important support for the prevailing uptrend.

Ethereum: Recovery Holds Above 50-day EMA

Ethereum is changing hands at $2,353, trading above its 50-day EMA at $2,196. However, upside progress is constrained below the 100-day EMA at $2,356 and the 200-day EMA at $2,654. This setup reflects a neutral to mildly positive backdrop.

The daily RSI is around 62, pointing to constructive momentum. The MACD remains positive, showing that buyers still hold control above the 50-day EMA.

On the upside, resistance sits at the 100-day EMA near $2,356. Beyond that, the 200-day EMA at $2,654 is the next key barrier. On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $2,196 acts as initial support.

XRP: Holding Gains Above Support but Capped by Moving Averages

XRP trades near $1.44 and holds above the 50-day EMA at $1.41. However, resistance remains firm at higher levels.

The 100-day EMA near $1.55 is the first upside barrier. Above that, the 200-day EMA at $1.81 caps the broader trend.

Momentum indicators have improved. The MACD shows a positive signal, while the RSI sits near 61. This suggests buyers are regaining control.

On the downside, $1.41 is the key support. A break below this level could expose $1.32. On the upside, a move above $1.55 would strengthen the bullish outlook and open the door toward higher resistance levels.