Key Moments
- Gold (XAU/USD) extended its recovery for a second session, trading near $4,800 after touching a nearly three-week high.
- News of a US-Iran ceasefire and conditions on the Strait of Hormuz weighed on the US Dollar Index (DXY) and supported bullion.
- Falling Crude Oil prices eased inflation concerns, dampening Fed rate hike expectations and pulling US yields lower, to gold’s benefit.
Ceasefire Developments Drive Dollar Lower, Lift Gold
Gold (XAU/USD) continued to advance for a second consecutive session, building on a rebound from the $4,600 area and reaching a nearly three-week high during Asian trading on Wednesday. After touching its intraday peak, the metal eased slightly but was last trading around the $4,800 level, up about 2.0% on the day amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness.
The USD Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, dropped to a nearly one-month low following headlines about a US-Iran ceasefire. US President Donald Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that he will suspend planned military strikes against Iran for two weeks, provided Tehran agrees to a complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran indicated that it has accepted a two-week ceasefire, with talks scheduled to begin on Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan. This sequence of events boosted risk sentiment and undermined the USD’s global reserve currency appeal, in turn supporting gold prices.
In a separate statement, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, said that safe passage through the crucial waterway will be possible for a two-week period. That comment coincided with a sharp pullback in Crude Oil prices, which helped to alleviate inflation worries and cooled expectations for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The softer inflation outlook dragged US Treasury yields lower, adding to pressure on the Greenback and providing further backing to non-yielding gold. Even so, the absence of strong follow-through buying suggests that XAU/USD bulls may need to remain cautious before positioning for a more sustained move higher.
Technical Picture: Mildly Bullish, But Key Resistance Still Intact
From a technical standpoint, the near-term outlook for gold appears mildly constructive as prices have pushed back above the mid-range of the recent consolidation. However, XAU/USD continues to trade below the descending 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. This moving average aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March decline, maintaining pressure on the broader trend.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned higher into positive territory, with the histogram expanding. This setup points to strengthening upside momentum following the earlier corrective phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding in the mid-60s, which supports a constructive bias while stopping short of signaling extreme overbought conditions.
Even with these positive signals, a more convincing bullish case would likely require a clear and sustained break above the $4,920 confluence barrier. A move through that level could open the way for a test of the $5,000 psychological area, followed by the $5,141 zone, which corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and represents the next upside objective.
On the downside, first support is located at the 50% retracement level near $4,760. A break below this area could expose the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at $4,605. Below that, a more substantial floor is seen near $4,411 at the 23.60% retracement, where a downside violation would undermine the current bullish bias and bring the lower part of the broader Fibonacci range into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies
The following table shows the intraday percentage change of the US Dollar (USD) versus major currencies. According to the data, the US Dollar was strongest relative to the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.70% | -0.91% | -0.76% | -0.37% | -1.32% | -1.70% | -1.00% | |
| EUR | 0.70% | -0.23% | -0.06% | 0.34% | -0.62% | -1.06% | -0.32% | |
| GBP | 0.91% | 0.23% | 0.17% | 0.58% | -0.37% | -0.80% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | 0.76% | 0.06% | -0.17% | 0.39% | -0.53% | -0.94% | -0.25% | |
| CAD | 0.37% | -0.34% | -0.58% | -0.39% | -0.92% | -1.31% | -0.64% | |
| AUD | 1.32% | 0.62% | 0.37% | 0.53% | 0.92% | -0.41% | 0.25% | |
| NZD | 1.70% | 1.06% | 0.80% | 0.94% | 1.31% | 0.41% | 0.69% | |
| CHF | 1.00% | 0.32% | 0.10% | 0.25% | 0.64% | -0.25% | -0.69% |
The heat map is read using the base currency from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, selecting the US Dollar from the left and moving to the Japanese Yen column shows the percentage move in USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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