Key Moments
- EUR/JPY trades around 184.15 in early European hours on Friday, holding above the 100-day EMA near 182.10.
- ECB policymakers’ hawkish comments lend support to the Euro, while Middle East tensions underpin safe-haven demand for the Yen.
- Key technical levels include support at 183.50 and 182.50-182.10, with resistance at 184.80 and then the 186.00 area.
EUR/JPY Holds Firm in Thin Holiday Trading
EUR/JPY is trading slightly higher around 184.15 in early European dealings on Friday, with the cross maintaining a positive tone. Market activity is expected to be subdued due to the Good Friday holiday, limiting participation and potentially dampening intraday volatility.
The constructive outlook for the pair remains in place while it trades above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is situated near 182.10. Momentum indicators also lean supportive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing bullish characteristics.
Policy Signals and Geopolitics Shape EUR/JPY Backdrop
Comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials are providing a tailwind to the Euro against the Japanese Yen. ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that the central bank’s next interest rate move will very likely be an increase, although it is still too early to say when it will start hiking.
At the same time, geopolitical developments in the Middle East are a potential source of support for the Yen, given its safe-haven profile. US President Donald Trump pressures Iran to make a deal after a military strike destroys a bridge near Tehran. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Washington’s recent strikes on civilian infrastructure will not force the country to back down, adding that such actions “convey the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray.”
Technical Picture: Mildly Bullish Bias Above 100-Day EMA
On the daily chart, the short-term stance for EUR/JPY is described as mildly bullish. Price action remains above the rising 100-day EMA near 182.10 and is consolidating just below the upper Bollinger Band. This configuration suggests ongoing upside pressure following the recent move higher.
The middle Bollinger Band, now positioned around 183.50, lies below the current spot level and is acting as a dynamic support zone in line with the prevailing trend. The most recent RSI reading, slightly above 54, indicates positive momentum without signaling stretched conditions, consistent with a steady, grinding advance rather than a sharp blow-off move.
Key Technical Levels
Immediate support is seen at the middle Bollinger Band around 183.50. Below that, the 182.50-182.10 band, where recent lows intersect with the 100-day EMA, represents a more substantial support area. A clear break beneath this region would undermine the existing bullish structure and open the way for a deeper pullback toward 181.50.
On the upside, initial resistance is located near the recent upper Bollinger Band zone around 184.80. A daily close above this level would strengthen the bullish case and could pave the way for a move toward the 186.00 region, where previous Bollinger Band highs are clustered and upside risk would become more pronounced.
| Level | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 186.00 area | Resistance | Zone of prior upper Bollinger Band highs, upside risk intensifies above |
| 184.80 | Resistance | Recent upper Bollinger Band region, initial topside barrier |
| 184.15 | Spot | Trading level in early European session on Friday |
| 183.50 | Support | Middle Bollinger Band, acting as dynamic trend support |
| 182.50-182.10 | Support | Confluence of recent lows and 100-day EMA; key structural area |
| 181.50 | Support | Deeper retracement target if 182.50-182.10 breaks |
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Background on the Japanese Yen
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is described as one of the world’s most actively traded currencies, with its valuation influenced by the performance of the Japanese economy, the policy stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), yield differentials between Japanese and US bonds, and overall market risk sentiment.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
