Cardano Bulls Return as Whales Accumulate Slowly

Key Moments

Whale Positioning Signals Selective Accumulation

Cardano (ADA) showed a modest recovery on Monday, changing hands above $0.24 after a two-week pullback. On-chain data indicates that large holders have begun to reposition, offering tentative support for the token’s price.

According to Santiment’s Supply Distribution metrics, two key whale groups increased their exposure between Wednesday and Monday. Addresses controlling between 100,000 and 1 million ADA and those holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA collectively added 230 million tokens during this period. In contrast, wallets in the 1 million to 10 million ADA range reduced their holdings by 30 million tokens.

This divergence suggests that the mid-tier whale cohort may have capitulated, while larger and smaller whale segments moved in to accumulate ADA at lower levels. If this accumulation trend persists, it could provide additional fuel for a continued price recovery.

Santiment’s Cardano Supply Distribution chart illustrates these shifts across the red, blue, and yellow cohort lines, underscoring the redistribution of ADA among different whale brackets.

Derivatives and Order Flow Show Slight Bullish Tilt

Derivatives positioning has also turned more constructive. CoinGlass data shows ADA’s long-to-short ratio at 1.14 on Monday, hovering near its highest reading in over a month. A value above 1 indicates that more traders hold long positions than shorts, reflecting an optimistic bias toward future price direction.

Cardano’s long-to-short ratio chart from Coinglass highlights this build-up in bullish leverage. Complementing this, CryptoQuant’s summary data points to broadly neutral conditions, with a mild lean toward the upside. Large whale orders are visible in both spot and futures markets, while most other indicators remain neutral, hinting at potential for an upward move if buying interest strengthens.

Technical Picture: Recovery Faces Headwinds

From a technical standpoint, the ADA price structure remains fragile. Cardano traded at $0.24 on Monday, marking a decline of more than 4% over the previous week. The short-term outlook is mildly bearish, with the token still capped beneath the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, both of which continue to slope downward and act as dynamic resistance on rebounds.

The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart stood at 41, signaling subdued momentum. This reading indicates that sellers still hold the upper hand, although conditions are not yet stretched into oversold territory.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains aligned with this cautious view. The MACD line sits below the signal line and has slipped back under the zero threshold. The expansion of the negative histogram suggests that downside forces are reasserting dominance after a short-lived stabilization phase.

Key Support and Resistance Levels for ADA

Immediate support lies around the horizontal area near $0.23. A decisive breakdown below this level would reinforce bearish control and could pave the way for a deeper move toward the $0.22 region.

On the upside, the first resistance barrier emerges around $0.26, which sits just below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the $0.42 high to the $0.22 low. Above that, a more substantial resistance zone appears around $0.29, where a prior congestion area coincides with the 38.2% retracement and the underside of the declining 50-day EMA.

A daily close above $0.29 would be required to meaningfully challenge the prevailing bearish narrative and indicate that a more durable recovery phase might be underway.