Key Moments
- USD/CHF is trading near 0.7771 within a channel and identified as being in a 4th wave.
- Strategy anticipates a bounce toward an ATR-based target at 0.7855a, with an extended objective near the R4 level at 0.7870.
- The pair’s current average daily true range is 88 pips, compared with a 90-day average of 51 pips.
Technical Overview
USD/CHF is currently quoted around 0.7771 and is described as trading inside a channel structure, with price action characterized as being in a 4th wave phase. Within this framework, the forex strategy stance is bullish, anticipating further upside once the present wave completes.
The setup is focused on a potential rebound in the pair that could lead to renewed upward momentum, aligning with the prevailing channel configuration.
Upside Targets and Wave Structure
The strategy points first to an average true range (ATR) based objective at 0.7855a. Beyond that near-term level, the broader upside target is highlighted at the R4 zone around 0.7870.
Market observers are advised to monitor the current 4th wave for signs of a resumption into a 5th wave that could support a continuation of the bullish move toward these projected price areas.
| Level / Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current USD/CHF price | 0.7771 |
| ATR-based target | 0.7855a |
| Overall R4 target area | 0.7870 |
| Current daily ATR | 88 pips |
| 90-day average ATR | 51 pips |
Momentum Signals and USDX Context
The analysis notes convergence on the hourly timeframe, which supports the constructive view on USD/CHF within the existing wave count. At the same time, USDX is described as being higher but in a brief corrective phase.
Traders are encouraged to keep a close watch on USDX behavior as a guide for directional confirmation in USD/CHF, particularly in relation to the expected bounce scenario.
Volatility Profile
The pair’s current average daily true range stands at 88 pips, indicating a higher level of recent volatility relative to its 90-day ATR, which is recorded at 51 pips per day. This divergence underscores an environment of elevated price movement that may influence trade sizing and risk parameters.
Event Risk
The note highlights that “JOLTS today!” as a reminder of scheduled data that could affect market conditions. Participants may wish to factor this event into their short-term trading plans around USD/CHF and the broader USD complex.
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