Key Moments
- Brent Oil Futures for March delivery traded at $64.10 per barrel as of 21:10 ET (02:10 GMT) and stayed largely unchanged during Asian hours.
- At the same time, last week’s crude gains faded after U.S. President Donald Trump eased fears of near-term military action involving Iran.
- Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff threat against eight European nations shifted market focus toward rising transatlantic trade risks.
Price Action in Asian Trading
Oil prices were mostly steady during Asian trading on Monday. This calm followed a volatile week driven by supply concerns linked to Iran.
However, attention has now shifted away from supply risks. Instead, traders are focusing on geopolitical and trade developments between the United States and Europe.
By 21:10 ET (02:10 GMT), Brent Oil Futures for March traded at $64.10 per barrel with little movement. At the same time, WTI crude futures did not trade because U.S. markets were closed for a public holiday.
| Contract | Expiration | Price | Trading Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Oil Futures | March | $64.10 per barrel | Largely unchanged |
| WTI Crude Futures | Not specified | Not quoted | Not traded due to U.S. public holiday |
Impact of Evolving Iran Supply Risk
Crude prices ended last week higher overall. Still, early gains faded after President Trump downplayed the risk of immediate military conflict with Iran.
Earlier in the week, prices rose sharply on fears that unrest in Iran could disrupt Middle East oil flows. Because the region accounts for a large share of global output, those worries supported prices.
However, as tensions eased, the risk premium fell. Consequently, oil prices pulled back before stabilizing near the end of the week.
New Tariff Threats Aimed at Europe
Focus has now turned to trade policy. President Trump warned that he could impose tariffs on eight European countries opposing a proposed U.S. acquisition of Greenland.
According to his remarks, the plan would begin with a 10% tariff on Feb. 1. Later, if talks fail, the rate would rise to 25% in June.
Notably, the countries mentioned include France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and several Nordic states. As a result, investors have grown more cautious about a wider trade dispute.
| Measure | Detail |
|---|---|
| Initial tariff rate | 10% |
| Effective date | Feb. 1 |
| Escalated tariff rate | 25% |
| Escalation timing | June, if talks fail |
| Countries mentioned | France, Germany, UK, Nordic and northern Europe |
Potential EU Response and Growing Tensions
In response, media reports suggest the European Union may suspend a proposed EU–U.S. trade agreement. At the same time, officials are considering reviving tariffs worth up to €93 billion on U.S. goods.
Separately, French officials have urged the EU to activate its anti-coercion instrument against Washington. Such a move would likely raise tensions further.
“There will likely be significant noise around these issues this week,” ING analysts said. According to the note, attention could intensify as global leaders gather in Davos.
Broader Macro Drivers for Oil
Beyond geopolitics, traders are also tracking macroeconomic signals. In particular, expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts later this year remain in focus.
If borrowing costs decline, financial conditions could ease. As a result, oil demand may gain additional support in the months ahead.
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