Key Moments
- Cocoa prices fell more than 10% year-on-year in the first 12 days of 2026, reaching $5,443 per ton.
- The market recorded a 48.1% annual decline in 2025, ending the year at $6,056 per ton after earlier drought fears eased.
- Analysts expect prices to remain under pressure amid surplus expectations, although heightened volatility leaves room for sharp short-term moves.
Steep Price Correction Continues Into Early 2026
Cocoa prices have continued to decline in the opening days of 2026, dropping more than 10% year-on-year in the first 12 days of the year to $5,443 per ton. The latest leg lower has unfolded against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and improving weather conditions that have strengthened expectations for higher supply.
This downturn comes on the heels of cocoa’s largest recorded annual drop in 2025, when prices fell 48.1%. Earlier in that year, concerns over drought conditions in West Africa pushed cocoa sharply higher, but the mood shifted as harvest prospects improved. As expectations for better output took hold, prices retreated, with cocoa finishing 2025 at $6,056 per ton.
Policy Signals and Demand Weakness Add to Selling Pressure
Global chocolate and cocoa manufacturers had flagged softer sales last year, pointing to waning demand. In addition, an announcement from the White House outlining plans to remove cocoa tariffs added another layer of selling pressure in the market.
These factors have carried over into the start of the new year. In the first days of January, cocoa fell 10.3%, extending the prior year’s rout. Market sentiment has been further weighed down by favorable weather patterns across key West African production hubs.
West African Harvest Outlook Improves
Improved conditions in major producing countries have reinforced expectations of stronger supply. Harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana are anticipated to increase in February and March, supporting optimism among local farmers about both crop volume and quality.
Ivorian farmers report that recent unusual rainfall could significantly lift cocoa output. At the same time, European cocoa processing figures are expected to point to subdued demand, underscoring a widening imbalance between supply and consumption.
Market Metrics at a Glance
| Period / Metric | Detail |
|---|---|
| Price level in first 12 days of 2026 | $5,443 per ton |
| Year-on-year move in early 2026 | More than 10% decline |
| Price at end of 2025 | $6,056 per ton |
| Full-year 2025 price change | 48.1% decline |
| Price move in first days of January | 10.3% decline |
Analyst View: Technical Selling and Volatility Drive Moves
Oran van Dort, a commodity analyst at Rabobank, told Anadolu that the sharp drop in cocoa prices on Jan. 9 was driven more by technical factors than by changes in fundamentals, adding that exporters and speculators may have started selling to take advantage of the price rise on Jan. 8.
Van Dort said that rising volatility in the cocoa market, partly caused by declining liquidity, has amplified price swings, while high margin requirements have also contributed to the steep selloff.
He said cocoa prices are expected to remain largely on a downward trend in the coming period due to surplus expectations, maintaining a long-term bearish outlook. However, he noted that given the current volatility, both a continued decline and a potential short-term rebound remain possible.
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