Surging Gold Prices Drive Upward Revision in Australia’s Export Outlook

Key Moments

Upgraded Outlook for Resources Export Revenue

Australia has raised its expected resources export earnings for the current financial year by 4% to A$383 billion ($252.5 billion), supported by record gold prices, steady iron ore pricing, and a weaker-than-anticipated Australian dollar against the U.S. currency.

The Department of Industry, in its December report, stated that the outlook for exports of resource and energy commodities has “improved markedly” compared with its previous September assessment. The revised forecast represents an A$14 billion increase in expected export earnings for the current financial year and brings the projection close to the A$385 billion estimated for 2024-2025.

Although the updated figures remain below the immediate post-COVID peak of A$466 billion recorded in 2022–2023, the department emphasized that resources export earnings are still strong by historical standards.

According to the report, the improved projections are being underpinned by looser monetary and fiscal settings, investment related to expanding artificial intelligence use, and ongoing spending tied to the global energy transition.

Gold Emerges as a Key Growth Engine

Gold has been the primary factor behind the upward revision. In its September report, the department indicated that gold is on track to become Australia’s second most valuable resource export after iron ore in the 2025-26 financial year, overtaking liquefied natural gas as geopolitical concerns bolster demand for the safe-haven asset.

Australia now expects the value of its gold exports to reach A$69 billion in 2025–2026, an increase of 15% from the September projection of A$60 billion. The higher estimate reflects both stronger prices and larger export volumes. Gold export earnings are forecast to rise further to A$74 billion in 2026–2027.

Gold prices climbed to a record of more than $4,350 a troy ounce in October. The department’s December report anticipates that prices are likely to stay elevated at around $4,000 an ounce over 2026 before easing in 2027.

Iron Ore Holds the Top Spot

Iron ore is projected to remain Australia’s largest single contributor to resource and energy export earnings, accounting for around one quarter of total resource and energy commodity receipts over the next two years.

For the current financial year, iron ore prices are expected to average $87 a ton. For 2026-2027, the Department of Industry has nudged its forecast higher by $1 to $83 a ton.

“In trend terms, prices are expected to decline slightly because of abundant supply and moderating steel demand,” the government said.

Copper and Critical Minerals See Improved Prospects

The department reported that copper demand is expected to be supported by data center expansion. It has revised its copper price outlook higher, lifting the 2025-2026 forecast by 12% to $10,658 from the September estimate of $9,694. The 2026-2027 copper price forecast has been increased by 10% to $10,896 from a prior expectation of $9,906.

The value of exports of critical minerals is also projected to expand. The department expects critical minerals export earnings to climb to A$14 billion in 2026–27 from around A$11 billion in 2024–25. This increase is attributed to a rebound in manganese exports, supported by rising shipments of rare earths and antimony.

The report’s projections are based on an exchange rate assumption of $1 = 1.5168 Australian dollars.