Yesterday’s trade saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.6999-0.7189. The pair closed at 0.7157, surging 1.68% on a daily basis. It has been the 9th gain in the past 22 trading days and also the sharpest one since June 2nd 2015, when the pair added 2.17% to its value. The daily high has been the highest level since January 5th, when a high of 0.7218 was registered.
At 10:05 GMT AUD/USD was gaining 0.81% on the day to trade at 0.7215. The pair touched a daily high at 0.7218 at 9:22 GMT, overshooting the range resistance level (R3), and a daily low at 0.7154 during the early phase of the Asian trading session. The daily high was an exact test of the high from January 5th.
On Thursday AUD/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
Australia
AiG Performance of Construction Index
At 22:30 GMT the Australian Industry Group (AIG) is expected to announce the results from its survey on short-term and intermediate-term conditions in the sector of construction during January. Surveyed companies answer questions associated with production, employment, prices, supplier deliveries, inventories and new orders. The seasonally adjusted Performance of Construction Index (PCI) came in at a reading of 46.8 in December, or the first time in the past five months, when the gauge inhabited the area of contraction. Values below the key level of 50.0 are indicative of predominant pessimism (lower activity). An improvement in the value of this indicator would provide a limited support to the Australian dollar.
United States
Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims
The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on January 29th, probably rose to 280 000, according to market expectations, from 278 000 reported in the preceding week. The latter has been the lowest number of claims since the week ended on January 1st 2016, when 277 000 claims were reported.
The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 283 000, marking a decrease by 2 250 compared to the preceding weeks revised up average.
The business week, which ended on January 22nd has been the 46th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which implied a healthy labor market.
Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or increased further, this would have a moderate bearish effect on the US dollar.
The number of continuing jobless claims probably fell to the seasonally adjusted 2 240 000 during the business week ended on January 22nd from 2 268 000 in the preceding week. The latter represented an increase by 49 000 compared to the revised up number of claims reported in the week ended on January 8th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.
The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.
Factory Orders
Factory orders in the United States probably shrank 2.8% in December compared to November, according to the median estimate by experts, following another 0.2% drop in the preceding month. If expectations were met, this would be the sharpest monthly rate of decline since December 2014, when a 3.5% contraction was reported. Excluding the sector of transportation, factory orders went down 0.3% in November from a month ago. This indicator reflects the total value of new purchase orders, placed at manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods, and can provide insight into inflation and growth in the US sector of manufacturing. In case the general index of new orders dropped at a faster-than-anticipated rate, this would have a moderate bearish effect on the US dollar, as it implies future growth slowdown. The US Census Bureau will release the official data at 15:00 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 0.7174
R2 – 0.7192
R3 (range resistance) – 0.7210
R4 (range breakout) – 0.7262
S1 – 0.7140
S2 – 0.7122
S3 (range support) – 0.7105
S4 (range breakout) – 0.7053
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 0.7048
R1 – 0.7180
R2 – 0.7275
R3 – 0.7407
S1 – 0.6953
S2 – 0.6821
S3 – 0.6726
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
