Standard Chartered Halves Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook After Sharp Sell-Off

Key Moments

Forecasts Cut Across the Curve

One of Wall Street’s most prominent bitcoin optimists has sharply reduced his expectations for the cryptocurrency’s long-term trajectory.

Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered, previously known for projecting bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, told clients in a recent note that the bank has made deep cuts to its price targets for the token through the end of the decade.

According to Kendrick, Standard Chartered now anticipates bitcoin will close this year at approximately $100,000, which represents roughly 6% potential upside from where the cryptocurrency is currently trading.

Looking ahead to next year, the bank now forecasts bitcoin will climb to $150,000. That revised estimate is about half of its earlier 2025 target of $300,000.

Revised Path for Bitcoin Through 2030

The bank laid out a new set of annual price targets for the next five years, alongside the previous projections it has now abandoned.

Kendrick, who serves as global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, attributed the reset to recent market dynamics in a note published on Tuesday. He pointed to bitcoin’s steep retreat, with the token trading roughly 27% below its early-October high, as a key driver behind the overhaul.

Shift From Corporate Treasuries to ETF Flow

Kendrick argued that one important source of structural demand for bitcoin may no longer provide meaningful support.

He said that companies that buy and hold bitcoin as part of their balance-sheet strategy – often referred to as bitcoin treasuries – are unlikely to be a major force propping up prices from here. Instead, he said bitcoin’s future performance will depend much more heavily on flows into exchange-traded funds.

“Price action has forced us to recalibrate our Bitcoin price forecasts,” Kendrick wrote, adding that the firm believed bitcoin treasury buying had “run its course,” though ETF inflows could pick up “periodically.”

Macro Headwinds and Market Sentiment

The broader environment for bitcoin has been challenging. The cryptocurrency experienced turbulence earlier in the year as markets responded to tariffs, and it has continued to face pressure from concerns about higher inflation and the prospect of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.

The latest leg lower has been driven by a cluster of bearish influences, including thin liquidity conditions, a broader risk-off tone tied to uncertainty around the path of rate cuts, and speculation that Strategy, described as the largest corporate buyer of bitcoin, might be forced to sell part of its holdings.