On Wednesday (in GMT terms) gold for delivery in December traded within the range of $1,268.1-$1,338.3. Futures closed at $1,273.5, inching down 0.08% compared to Tuesday’s close. It has been the 200th drop in the past 377 trading days and also a third consecutive one. The daily high has been a level not seen since September 27th, when a high of $1,343.5 a troy ounce was registered. The precious metal has trimmed its advance to 0.03% so far during the current month, after losing 3.34% in October.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for delivery in December were advancing 0.90% on Thursday to trade at $1,285.0 per troy ounce. The precious metal went up as high as $1,292.5 during early European trade, while the current daily low was at $1,274.1 per troy ounce, recorded during the early phase of the Asian trading session.
The US Dollar Index, a gauge reflecting the relative strength of the greenback against a basket of 6 other major currencies, was edging up 0.17% on the day at a level of 98.83, after going up as high as 98.86 earlier. The latter has been the highest level for this index since October 28th. The gauge has neutralized earlier losses and is now up 0.44% so far in November, following a 3.18% advance in October.
On Wednesday gold futures soared to six-week highs, as Republican Donald Trump has been elected the 45th President of the United States. Later in the day market sentiment seemed to have improved, sending the metal down to test the $1,271-$1,275 area, where it closed at the end of last month. In early European trade on Thursday the commodity tested the $1,290 mark, attempting to resume the rally from a day ago, but however, recovering US Dollar may restrain the upside movement.
Today gold trading may be influenced by the weekly report on lay-offs in the United States. The number of people, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on November 4th, probably dropped to 260 000, according to market consensus, from 265 000 in the preceding week. The latter has been the highest number of claims since the business week ended on August 5th. In case the number of claims met expectations or decreased further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar and a moderate bearish effect on gold. The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.
Additionally, market players will be paying a close attention to the public appearance of St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, who is scheduled to speak at Commerce Bank in St. Louis at 14:15 GMT.
Meanwhile, medium-term investor rate hike expectations moderated.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, as of November 9th, market players saw a 71.5% chance of a rate hike occurring at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in December, down from 76.3% in the prior business day, and a 72.7% chance of a hike in February 2017, down from 77.8% in the preceding business day. As far as the March 15th 2017 meeting is concerned, the probability of such a move was seen at 76.4% on November 9th, down from 79.7% in the prior business day.
Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily levels of importance for gold are presented as follows:
R1 – $1,279.9
R2 – $1,286.4
R3 (Range Resistance – Sell) – $1,292.8
R4 (Long Breakout) – $1,312.1
R5 (Breakout Target 1) – $1,334.7
R6 (Breakout Target 2) – $1,344.0
S1 – $1,267.1
S2 – $1,260.6
S3 (Range Support – Buy) – $1,254.2
S4 (Short Breakout) – $1,234.9
S5 (Breakout Target 1) – $1,212.3
S6 (Breakout Target 2) – $1,203.0
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly levels of importance for gold are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – $1,295.2
R1 – $1,318.6
R2 – $1,332.6
R3 – $1,356.0
R4 – $1,379.3
S1 – $1,281.2
S2 – $1,257.8
S3 – $1,243.8
S4 – $1,229.7
In monthly terms, for the yellow metal we have the following pivots:
Central Pivot Point – $1,279.6
R1 – $1,316.1
R2 – $1,359.0
R3 – $1,395.5
R4 – $1,431.9
S1 – $1,236.7
S2 – $1,200.2
S3 – $1,157.3
S4 – $1,114.3
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