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Market Briefing on Monday June 27th

At the start of the US trading session on Monday, EUR/USD traded in proximity to the psychological 1.1000 level, after registering an intraday low of 1.0971. On Friday the common currency tested lows unseen since March 10th, tumbling to 1.0909 in a response to the shocking vote in the UK.

Monday is to mark the beginning of the global central bank summit in Sintra, Portugal. It became clear that the Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, is not due to participate, after Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, pulled out during the weekend, following the outcome from the EU membership referendum. Concerns arose that a potential boost in easing efforts from both the European Central Bank and Bank of England may be a complication for Federal Reserves intention to further tighten monetary policy. At 17:30 GMT the ECB President, Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak.

Meanwhile, Danske Bank forecasts a further plunge for the EUR/USD pair to the 1.0700 mark in a period of 3 months on the back of political uncertainty within the EU and more easing measures from the ECB. According to the bank, this may be followed by a surge to 1.10-1.15 in 1 year time.

GBP/USD extended the June 24th losses to over 11% on Monday, while plummeting to as low as 1.3152 in late European trade, which has been a level unseen since July 1985. At the start of the US session, the major pair returned above the 1.3200 mark. Near-term support sits at 1.2937 (the weekly R2 pivot). If broken, the next support should be 1.2786 (July 1985 low).

Goldman Sachs was reported to have trimmed its Sterling forecast, as it now projects that GBP/USD will probably trade at levels around 1.3400 by the end of 2016.

USD/CAD was off an intraday high of 1.3087, but remained supported within the 1.3010-1.3025 area. Near-term resistance sits at 1.3100 (the high from June 24th/the daily 200-period Exponential Moving Average) and then – at 1.3145 (the high from June 2nd/upper Bollinger line on daily time frame).

Gold futures for delivery in August preserved ground above the $1,320.00-per-troy-ounce mark, after reaching an intraday high of $1,339.30 in early Asian trade. Near-term resistance sits at $1,344.80 (the monthly R2 pivot) and then – at $1,362.45 (the high from June 24th).

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