Gold trading outlook: futures trade little changed, US employment data string eyed

On Thursday gold for delivery in June traded within the range of $1,225.60-$1,242.10. Futures closed at $1,233.50, edging up 0.41% on a daily basis. It has been the 22nd gain in the past 42 trading days. The yellow metal has lost a meager 0.03% of its value in March, following two consecutive months of gains.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for delivery in June were edging up 0.11% on Friday to trade at $1,234.80 per troy ounce. The precious metal went up as high as $1,236.90 during late Asian trading session, while the current daily low was at $1,231.10 per troy ounce, recorded during early Asian trade.

The commodity seemed to have ignored the upbeat manufacturing data, released out of China earlier on Friday. It became clear that Chinas Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.7 in March, outstripping market consensus pointing to a much lesser increase, to 48.2. Marchs value has been the highest since March 2015, as the general index was supported by an increase in output and new business orders. On the other hand, the gauge of employment continued to decrease during the period. Business entities in the sector signaled renewed inflationary pressure, with input costs and prices asked going up for the first time since July 2014. In February the PMI was reported at a level of 48.0. China is the worlds largest producer and the second largest consumer of gold behind India.

Markets focus now shifts to the key US employment data string. Employers in all sectors of economy in the United States, excluding the farming industry, probably added 205 000 new jobs in March, according to the median forecast by experts, after a job gain of 242 000 in February. Additionally, the average earnings per hour probably increased 0.2% in March compared to the prior month, according to market expectations, following an unexpected 0.1% drop in February. Meanwhile, the rate of unemployment in the US probably remained at 4.9% for a third consecutive month in March, according to the median estimate by analysts. It has been the lowest level since February 2008, when a rate of 4.8% was reported. In case job growth was higher than anticipated and the rate of unemployment met expectations or fell further, this would have a strong bullish effect on the US dollar and a strong bearish effect on gold, respectively. The official employment data are due out at 12:30 GMT.

Meanwhile, silver futures for delivery in May were edging down 0.26% on the day to trade at $15.420 per troy ounce, after going down as low as $15.375 a troy ounce during the late phase of the Asian trading session.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the traditional calculation method, the daily pivot levels for gold are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – $1,233.73
R1 – $1,241.87
R2 – $1,250.23
R3 – $1,258.37

S1 – $1,225.37
S2 – $1,217.23
S3 – $1,208.87

By using the traditional method of calculation again, the weekly pivot levels for gold are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – $1,230.60
R1 – $1,247.00
R2 – $1,272.60
R3 – $1,289.00

S1 – $1,205.00
S2 – $1,188.60
S3 – $1,163.00