Forex Market: AUD/USD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.6825-0.6942. The pair closed at 0.6940, going up 0.48% on a daily basis. It has been the 4th gain in the past 13 trading days and also a second consecutive one. In addition, the daily low was a lower-low test of the low from January 18th.

At 10:11 GMT AUD/USD was losing 0.24% for the day to trade at 0.6923. The pair touched a daily high at 0.6958 during the early phase of the Asian trading session, undershooting the daily R2 level, and a daily low at 0.6876 at 7:40 GMT. Support may be received at the hourly 100-period EMA (0.6905) and then – in the area around the current daily low (0.6876). Resistance, on the other hand, may be encountered at the hourly 200-period EMA (0.6942) and then – within the 0.6955-0.6970 area, where the pair saw resistance in the past several trading days.

On Thursday AUD/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on January 15th, probably dropped to 278 000, according to market expectations, from 284 000 reported in the preceding week.

The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 278 750, marking an increase by 3 000 compared to the preceding weeks unrevised average.

The business week, which ended on January 8th has been the 44th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which implied a healthy labor market.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or decreased further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably fell to the seasonally adjusted 2 248 000 during the business week ended on January 8th from 2 263 000 in the preceding week. The latter has been the highest number of claims since the business week ended on August 15th 2015. The figure also represented an increase by 29 000 compared to the revised up number of claims reported in the week ended on December 25th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index probably remained in negative territory for a second consecutive month in January, coming in at a reading of -3.0, according to the median forecast by experts. In December the gauge plunged to -5.9, or the lowest since August 2015, when it was reported at -6.0. The index is based on a monthly business survey (the Business Outlook Survey), measuring manufacturing activity in the third district of the Federal Reserve, Philadelphia. Participants give their opinion about the direction of business changes in overall economy and different indicators of activity in their companies, such as employment, working hours, new and existing orders, deliveries, inventories, delivery time, price etc. The survey is conducted every month since May 1968. The results are presented as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative projections. A level above zero is indicative of improving conditions, while a level below zero is indicative of worsening conditions. Higher-than-expected index readings would usually have a moderate bullish effect on the greenback. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is expected to release the official results from the survey at 13:30 GMT.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

R1 – 0.6951
R2 – 0.6961
R3 (range resistance) – 0.6972
R4 (range breakout) – 0.7004

S1 – 0.6929
S2 – 0.6919
S3 (range support) – 0.6908
S4 (range breakout) – 0.6876

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.6914
R1 – 0.7005
R2 – 0.7140
R3 – 0.7231

S1 – 0.6779
S2 – 0.6688
S3 – 0.6553