Forex Market: EUR/USD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.1151-1.1228. The pair closed at 1.1200, appreciating 0.30% on a daily basis and marking a third consecutive trading day of gains. The daily high has also been the highest level since September 3rd, when the cross registered a high of 1.1245.

At 7:00 GMT today EUR/USD was losing 0.42% for the day to trade at 1.1155. The pair touched a daily low at 1.1147 at 6:49 GMT.

Today the cross may be influenced by a number of macroeconomic reports as listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Job Openings

The number of job openings in the United States probably increased to 5.301 million in July from 5.249 million in June. The latter has been the lowest figure since March, when 4.994 million job openings were reported. This indicator refers to all positions that are open, but not filled on the last business day of the month. Job openings are part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which gathers data from about 16 400 non-farm establishments including retailers and manufacturers, as well as federal, state, and local government entities in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey assesses the unmet demand for labor in the labor market. Higher-than-projected number of openings will usually have a limited bullish effect on the US dollar. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is to release the official data at 14:00 GMT.

Bond Yield Spread

The yield on German 2-year government bonds went as high as -0.213% on September 8th, or matching the high from September 7th, after which it slid to -0.217% at the close to add 0.005 percentage point on a daily basis. It has been a second consecutive trading day of gains.

The yield on US 2-year government bonds climbed as high as 0.741% on September 8th, or the highest level since August 31st (0.743%), after which it fell to 0.737% at the close to add 2 basis points (0.02 percentage point) for the day, while marking a third straight trading day of increase.

The spread between 2-year US and 2-year German bond yields, which reflects the flow of funds in a short term, expanded to 0.954% on September 8th from 0.939% during the prior day. The September 8th yield spread has been the most notable one since August 18th, when the difference was 0.974%.

Meanwhile, the yield on German 10-year government bonds soared as high as 0.697 on September 8th, or the highest level since September 4th (0.717%), after which it slid to 0.680% at the close to appreciate 0.005 percentage point compared to September 7th, while marking a second straight trading day of gains.

The yield on US 10-year government bonds climbed as high as 2.201% on September 8th, or the highest level since September 1st (2.214%), after which it slipped to 2.188% at the close to add 3.7 basis points (0.037 percentage point) on a daily basis, while marking a second consecutive day of gains.

The spread between 10-year US and 10-year German bond yields expanded to 1.508% on September 8th from 1.476% during the prior day. The September 8th yield difference has been the largest one since August 18th, when the spread was 1.552%.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.1207
R2 – 1.1214
R3 (range resistance – green on the 30-minute chart) – 1.1221
R4 (range breakout – red on the 30-minute chart) – 1.1242

S1 – 1.1193
S2 – 1.1186
S3 (range support – green on the 30-minute chart) – 1.1179
S4 (range breakout – red on the 30-minute chart) – 1.1158

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.1188
R1 – 1.1291
R2 – 1.1434
R3 – 1.1537

S1 – 1.1045
S2 – 1.0942
S3 – 1.0799