Forex Market: EUR/NOK daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/NOK within the range of 8.5487-8.6195. The pair closed at 8.6060, gaining 0.48% on a daily basis.

At 7:38 GMT today EUR/NOK was up 0.16% for the day to trade at 8.6219. The pair touched a daily high at 8.6237 at 7:36 GMT.

Fundamentals

French Industrial Output

Annualized industrial production in France probably expanded 0.5% in January, according to the median estimate by experts. If so, this would be the first gain in the past 12 months. In December output contracted at an annualized rate of 1.3%. The index reflects the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining, utilities, with the exception of recycling.

In monthly terms, industrial production probably shrank 0.2% in January, following a 1.5% surge in December. The latter has been the fastest monthly rate of growth since April 2013, when output increased 2.2%.

Frances manufacturing production, which accounts for almost 80% of total industrial production, expanded 0.5% in January on annual and 0.1% on a monthly basis. This index is considered as causing a greater influence on the currency market. In case output rose more than projected, this would have a bullish effect on the euro. The National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies is to publish the official industrial data at 7:45 GMT.

Italian Industrial Output

Annualized industrial production in Italy probably expanded for a second consecutive month in January, at a pace of 0.1%, according to the median forecast by experts, following a string of five months of declines. In December output grew at an annualized rate of 0.1%.

Italian seasonally adjusted index of industrial production probably rose for a third straight month in January, at a pace of 0.2% from a month ago. In December compared to November output expanded 0.4%. In case output grew at a faster-than-anticipated pace, this would have a limited bullish effect on the common currency. The National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is to release the official industrial data at 9:00 GMT.

Norway

Consumer Inflation

Norway’s annualized consumer inflation probably accelerated to 2.1% in February from 2.0% in the preceding month. In monthly terms, the index of consumer prices (CPI) probably rose 0.7% in February, following a 0.1% dip in January. It reflects the change in the general level of prices of over 650 goods and services, which the population acquires, uses or pays for consumption. In case the annual CPI surged more than expected, this would bolster demand for the krone.

The nation’s annualized core CPI (CPI-ATE) probably increased 2.5% in February, after a month ago it rose 2.4%. This indicator is comprised by two main components – CPI-AE, which excludes energy costs and prices of raw materials, and CPI-AT, which is based on real current prices adjusted for taxes. CPI-ATE is the indicator, used by Norges Bank in order to set its interest rate policy. A higher than expected annual core inflation would support the national currency, as this boosts the case for a rate hike. Statistics Norway is to release the official report on consumer inflation at 9:00 GMT.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 8.5914. In case EUR/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 8.6341, it will probably continue up to test 8.6622. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 8.7049.

If EUR/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 8.5633, it will probably continue to slide and test 8.5206. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 8.4925.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 8.5066, M2 – 8.5420, M3 – 8.5774, M4 – 8.6128, M5 – 8.6482, M6 – 8.6836.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 8.5950. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 8.6412, R2 – 8.7072, R3 – 8.7534. The three key support levels are: S1 – 8.5290, S2 – 8.4828, S3 – 8.4168.