Forex Market: USD/CAD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.1378-1.1261. The pair closed at 1.1359, gaining 0.63% on a daily basis.

At 9:32 GMT today USD/CAD was up 0.15% for the day to trade at 1.1376. The pair held in a daily range of 1.1340-1.1384.

Fundamental view

United States

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to report at 13:30 GMT that the US trade deficit probably narrowed slightly to $40.00 billion in September from $40.10 billion in August. If confirmed, this would be the lowest reading since January.

Later in the day, the US Census Bureau will report on the nation’s factory orders for September. This indicator measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers.

Orders are projected to have declined by 0.6% in September on a monthly basis, compared to a 10.1% contraction in August.

Excluding the sector of transportation, orders probably have risen by 0.1%.

In case new orders dropped more than anticipated, this would have a bearish effect on the greenback, and vice versa.

Canada

Statistics Canada is expected to report at 13:30 GMT that Canada’s trade balance probably narrowed its deficit to CAD 0.3 billion in September from CAD 0.61 billion in August.

The trade balance measures the difference in value between a country’s exported and imported goods and services during the reported period. It reflects the net export of goods and services, or one of the components to form the country’s Gross Domestic Product. Generally, exports reflect economic growth, while imports indicate domestic demand. A widening trade surplus implies higher demand for the local currency. In case the trade balance deficit widened more than anticipated, this would pressure down the Canadian dollar.

Pivot levels

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.1333. In case USD/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.1404, it may come to test 1.1450. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.1521.

If USD/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.1287, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.1216. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.1170.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.1193, M2 – 1.1252, M3 – 1.1310, M4 – 1.1369, M5 – 1.1427, M6 – 1.1486.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.1239. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.1361, R2 – 1.1455, R3 – 1.1577. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.1145, S2 – 1.1023, S3 – 1.0929.