Key Moments
- Societe Generale’s Commodity Compass warns that El Niño conditions in 2026-2027 could hold African Copperbelt copper production flat through H1 2027.
- Consensus expects copper output growth of +200 kt in the DRC and +70 kt in Zambia this year, but year-to-date trends show only +90 kt and +20 kt, respectively.
- The RONI climate index is described as nearing 1997-98 levels, with rainfall estimated to be 30cm below last year and temperatures almost +1°C higher, straining hydropower and mine output.
El Niño Poses Headwind to Copperbelt Supply
Societe Generale’s Commodity Compass, prepared by Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem, examines how a strong El Niño pattern in 2026-2027 could hold back copper production growth in the African Copperbelt. The analysis emphasizes that copper mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia rely heavily on hydropower, leaving them vulnerable to drought-related electricity shortages.
According to the report, the combination of weakening mine expansion momentum and potential power constraints means copper output from the Copperbelt may struggle to grow and could remain broadly unchanged at best through the first half of 2027, with a potential recovery expected later that year.
Historical Impact of El Niño on Regional Output
The Commodity Compass underscores that major El Niño phases have aligned with softer production trends in the Copperbelt in recent years.
“El Niño Could Stall Copper Supply Growth in 2027. Major El Niño episodes have consistently coincided with weaker Copperbelt production. Output declined in the DRC in 2016 and in Zambia in 2019 and 2023, while growth stalled in 2015.”
Climate Signals: RONI Index and Weather Projections
The report notes that the current climate signal, measured by the RONI index, is drawing close to readings seen during the 1997-98 event.
“Today, the RONI index is approaching 1997-98 levels, making the current episode one of the strongest on record. We estimate rainfall could fall 30cm below last year while temperatures rise almost +1°C, putting additional pressure on river levels and hydropower generation.”
These projections suggest heightened risks for water levels in key river systems that feed hydropower facilities, implying possible power supply disruptions for copper operations in the DRC and Zambia.
Production Expectations vs Year-to-Date Reality
Societe Generale contrasts market expectations for copper output growth in the region with the performance observed so far this year.
| Country | Consensus copper output growth (this year) | Year-to-date trend |
|---|---|---|
| DRC | +200 kt | +90 kt |
| Zambia | +70 kt | +20 kt |
“Consensus expects copper output growth of +200 kt in the DRC and +70 kt in Zambia this year, yet year-to-date trends point to only +90 kt and +20 kt, respectively. With the climate anomaly likely to remain elevated through H1 2027, we believe Copperbelt production growth could be flat at best before conditions begin to improve from Q3 2027 onward.”
Outlook Through H1 2027 and Beyond
Looking ahead, the Commodity Compass projects that the climate anomaly will likely stay elevated into the first half of 2027.
“Looking into H1 2027, we expect the RONI anomaly to remain above +0.5°C, as observed in both 1998 and 2024. If history is any guide, this would leave copper production flat at best on a year-on-year basis. Conditions should start improving from Q3 2027 onwards as the climate anomaly fades.”
The report therefore frames El Niño-linked hydropower constraints and already moderating mine growth as a key risk factor for Copperbelt copper supply over the coming years, with potential relief only once the climate anomaly begins to dissipate.
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