Forex Market: GBP/CAD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session GBP/CAD traded within the range of 1.8366-1.8424 and closed at 1.8398, losing 0.03% for the day.

At 6:52 GMT today GBP/CAD was losing 0.09% for the day to trade at 1.8373. The pair touched a daily low at 1.8364 at 1:15 GMT, breaching the first key daily support level.

Fundamental view

United Kingdom

The deficit on United Kingdom’s trade balance probably narrowed to 8.900 billion GBP in June from a deficit figure of 9.204 billion GBP during the preceding month. This indicator is also known as visible trade balance, because it reflects the difference in value between exported and imported physical goods, without the inclusion of exported and imported services. Since UK economy is to a great extent dependent on trade, the visible trade balance is considered as a key factor, providing clues over the resilience of nation’s economic growth. In case UK trade deficit shrank more than anticipated, this would provide support to the pound. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the official figure at 8:30 GMT.

At the same time, the deficit on United Kingdom’s trade balance with countries outside the European Union probably narrowed to 3.700 billion GBP in June from a deficit of 3.961 billion GBP in the preceding month. A higher than expected deficit would have a bearish effect on sterling.

Canada

The number of employed people in Canada probably increased by 24 000 last month compared to June, according to the median forecast by experts. In June, the number of employed Canadians unexpectedly declined by 9 400. Creation of new job positions is considered of utmost importance for consumer spending. In case employment in the country increases more than expected, the loonie would be supported.

In addition, the rate of unemployment in Canada probably remained unchanged at 7.1% in July. Lower than expected unemployment would have a bullish effect on the Canadian dollar. Statistics Canada is expected to release its official report at 12:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.8396. In case GBP/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.8427, it will probably continue up to test 1.8454. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.8484.

If GBP/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.8368, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.8338. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.8310.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.8380. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.8442, R2 – 1.8522, R3 – 1.8584. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.8300, S2 – 1.8238, S3 – 1.8158.