Euro Retreats Against Dollar as Pair Retests 200-Day Moving Average

Key Moments

Technical Picture for EUR/USD

EUR/USD has been sliding after it was unable to break above the top of its multi-month consolidation range. Following the rejection near 1.1800/1.1830, the currency pair has steadily retreated and is now testing its 200-day moving average.

Analysts at Société Générale acknowledge the possibility of a short-lived recovery from current levels but emphasize that resistance around 1.1700 is likely to restrict further gains and maintain attention on lower support zones.

Analysts Highlight Growing Downside Risk

Société Générale’s FX strategists underline that the latest rejection at the range top has increased the risk that the ongoing pullback could evolve into a more persistent downtrend if key resistance is not overcome.

The bank’s analysts state: “EUR/USD has experienced a steady pullback after failing to break above the upper boundary of its multi‑month range near 1.1800/1.1830. It is now at the 200‑DMA. A brief rebound cannot be ruled out; however, the recent pivot high at 1.1700 is likely to cap upside.”

They add: “Failure to cross this hurdle could lead to continuation in downtrend. The next potential supports are located at the ascending trend line drawn from August 2025 near 1.1535, followed by the last November trough at 1.1490/1.1470.”