Forex Market: EUR/NOK daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/NOK traded within the range of 8.3783-8.4311 and closed at 8.4154, gaining 0.43% on a daily basis.

At 6:11 GMT today EUR/NOK was down 0.01% for the day to trade at 8.4166. The pair touched a daily high at 8.4173 at 5:55 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Activity in Italy’s sector of manufacturing probably expanded in July, with the corresponding PMI coming in at a reading of 52.8, as expected by experts, from 52.6 in June. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate increased activity. Markit Economics is expected to release the official data at 7:45 GMT.

France’s final manufacturing PMI probably remained in the zone of contraction for a third straight month in July, while confirming the preliminary PMI reading of 47.6, which was reported on July 24th. The official reading is due out at 7:50 GMT.

The final reading of German manufacturing PMI probably confirmed the preliminary value for July, with the index coming in at 52.9. Markit will release the official reading at 7:55 GMT.

The final manufacturing PMI in the Euro zone probably also confirmed the preliminary value for July, with the index remaining at 51.9. The official reading is scheduled to be released at 8:00 GMT. The PMI is based on a monthly survey, encompassing a sample of business entities, which represents private sector conditions in terms of new orders, output, employment, prices etc. Higher than expected readings would provide support to the 18-nation common currency.

Norway

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in Norway probably exited the contraction zone, with the corresponding PMI, coming in at 50.2, after it stood at 49.6 in the previous month, signaling contraction in sectors activity.

The index is based on a monthly survey – questionnaire, which involves carefully selected companies, thereby giving a preliminary indication of the future developments in the private sector of the economy by tracking changes in production, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices in the manufacturing sector. PMI is the first economic indicator that provides accurate information on changing economic conditions before the publication of the official government statistics. The index is presented at levels between 1 and 100. Levels above 50 indicate positive growth , those below 50 indicate a contraction in activity.

Statistics Norway is due to release an official report at 7:00 GMT. A higher than expected increase would certainly heighten the appeal of the Norwegian krona.

In addition, the rate of unemployment in the country probably rose to 3.0% in July, according to the median forecast by experts, from 2.7% in June.

In case the unemployment rate met expectations or even increased further, this would have a bearish effect on the krone. Statistics Norway will release the official employment data at 8:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 8.4083. In case EUR/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 8.4382, it will probably continue up to test 8.4611. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 8.4910.

If EUR/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 8.3854, it will probably continue to slide and test 8.3555. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 8.3326.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 8.3627. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 8.4064, R2 – 8.4569, R3 – 8.5006. The three key support levels are: S1 – 8.3122, S2 – 8.2685, S3 – 8.2180.