Grains futures trading outlook: wheat gains after slump, soybeans and corn lower

Wheat futures stood higher during early trade in Europe today, after reaching a four-year bottom on Tuesday. Beans and corn were lower, as harvest projections and improving US weather boosted bearish sentiment.

Weather reports project a week of limited rainfall for the Midwest, which should not affect crops too much, as temperatures remain near-to-below normal, easing pressure on growing crops. The Southern Plains will see more rains, and below-normal temps, which will ease crops after a hot and dry last week. The Northern Plains and Canada will see mostly favorable conditions, with mild weather and sufficient soil moisture.

Wheat

Wheat for September delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) traded at $5.222 per bushel at 9:58 GMT today, up 0.43%. Prices ranged $5.210 to $5.236. The contract dropped 2.76% on Tuesday, reaching a four-year low at $5.184 per bushel, after a further 0.60% loss on Monday.

“The international supply situation is more than adequate and will curb demand for U.S. wheat,” Greg Grow, director of agribusiness at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago, said for Bloomberg.

Mondays National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) weekly log pointed that winter wheat harvest was 83% complete, after the 75% figure for last week, while spring wheat condition was unchanged at 70% in good or excellent shape.

Corn

Corn December contracts in Chicago stood at $3.684 per bushel, dropping 0.67%. The contract was down 1.53% as trading closed yesterday, after adding 1.34% on Monday.

China has reportedly limited US corn imports, on concerns that late shipments contain a genetically modified variety, Hamburg-based Oil World reported.

“Supplies on the U.S. market will increase correspondingly next season if China, so far the leading importer, continues to curtail imports of corn and its byproducts on GMO issues,” Oil World said.

Previously, NASS’ weekly report showed 76% of corn crops were in good or excellent condition as of July 27, while last year’s standing for the week was 63%. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast a corn produce of 13.86 billion bushels this year, which would be the second-highest ever.

Soybeans

Soybeans for November lost 0.89% to trade at $10.852 per bushel. The contract lost 1.15% yesterday, after gaining 2.24% on Monday.

“A more favorable weather outlook is going to have a bearish impact on prices,” Graydon Chong, an analyst at Rabobank International, said for Bloomberg. “Any positive news on the weather front means the prospect of higher yields. The market is expecting very large crops of corn and soybeans particularly out of the U.S.”

Beans crops were reported to remain in top-notch condition as of Monday, with 71% in good or excellent shape. The USDA projects a record harvest of 3.8 billion bushels this year.

Meanwhile, US exports of soybeans more than tripled on an annual basis to 2.68 million tons in the week ended July 17, USDA data showed on Monday.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, wheat for September delivery on the CBOT will see its first resistance level at $5.309. If breached, the contract will advance to $5.419 and then to $5.481 per bushel. The first support points is estimated at $5.137. Should it be broken, wheat will test $5.075 and after that $4.965 per bushel.

Corn for December will have its first resistance at $3.761 and if it broken the contract will advance first to $3.813 and then to $3.853 per bushel. The first support level is calculated at $3.669. Should the contract breach that, it will probably continue down to $3.629. If both previous supports are penetrated corn will test $3.577 per bushel.

Soybeans for November have the front resistance level estimated at $11.113. If the contract manages to pass the first level, next resistance is expected at $11.275 and then $11.387 per bushel. Meanwhile, support is expected at $10.839, $10.727 and $10.565 per bushel.