Forex Market: EUR/USD daily forecast

During Friday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3521-1.3579 and closed at 1.3541.

At 7:02 GMT today EUR/USD was losing 0.04% for the day to trade at 1.3536. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3535 at 7:01 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

The final annualized reading of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in the Euro zone probably rose 0.5 % in May, matching the preliminary reading estimated on June 3rd. The HICP is used to measure and compare inflation between Member States. It is used for further evaluation of inflation, according to Art . 121 of the Amsterdam’s Agreement and directives of the European Central Bank to achieve price stability and the implementation of monetary policy. HICP is calculated based on international harmonized standards adopted by Member States. This is the percentage change compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

Eurostat is scheduled to release the official report at 09:00 GMT. A weaker-than-expected reading may prompt the ECB to continue easing monetary policy, while a higher-than-expected reading will probably relieve pressure on central bank’s officials and they will not need to take imminent actions.

United States

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the US probably declined to 15.7 in June from 19.01 in the preceding month that was the highest since March 2012.

The index is based on the results of the monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey. It is conducted in the beginning of each month among roughly 200 executives of manufacturing companies. Participants are asked to share their opinions about different indicators for the preceding month and their 6-month forecast as well, measuring their sentiment. The result is calculated as the difference between the positive and the negative answers. Values above zero are indicative of expansion in manufacturing activity.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will publish its official report at 12:30 GMT. In case manufacturing activity in the state of New York expanded more than expected, this would boost greenbacks demand.

In addition, the industrial production in the country probably rose 0.4% in May, after declining 0.6% in the prior month.

The indicator measures the activity of the industrial sector by estimating the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by mines, utilities and manufacturers in the US. Information is gathered through surveys and is calculated on a monthly basis.

The Federal Reserve is due to release official data at 13:15 GMT. If industrial output rose more than expected, this will heighten the dollars appeal.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3573, it will probably continue up to test 1.3605. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3631.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3515, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3489. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3457.